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俄罗斯海军建设目标——世界第二

2017-08-31 05:47:10   中国青年网

《海军政策基础》明确:2025年前,俄罗斯海军主要武器是远程高精度导弹;2025年后,将普遍装备高超音速武器和无人机、无人水下航行器等自主无人系统。目前,“锆石”高超音速导弹研发进展顺利并将实战部署,多个型号无人机的作战效能已在叙利亚战争中得到验证。

俄罗斯海军被定位为一支区域性而非全球性的海上力量

在俄罗斯2015年版《海洋学说》中,大西洋、北极、太平洋、印度洋、里海和南极被确定为关乎俄罗斯国家安全和发展的重点海洋方向。据此,俄罗斯海军主要就是在这些海洋方向上活动。

在《海军政策基础》中,俄罗斯海军被定位为一支区域性而非全球性的海上力量。实际上,这是基于俄罗斯的海洋地理条件和国家综合实力的理性选择。文件中明确,未来中短期内,黑海和地中海方向,将是俄罗斯海军走向世界大洋的战略突破口。为此,黑海舰队将得到重点建设,并通过加强克里米亚多军兵种军事集群,保障黑海舰队战斗力的发挥。

黑海舰队辖区内的黑海和地中海周边地区,在未来中短期内,分布有多个地缘政治热点,这个地区恐怖主义、民族主义和分裂主义肆虐,局部战争和武装冲突不断,西方支持下的敌对国家与俄罗斯对立。俄罗斯海军选此方向作为战略突破口,不但可有效预防和对抗上述威胁,还可更有效地对全球和地缘政治形势施加影响,发挥俄罗斯作为不容忽视的世界大国应有的作用。

俄罗斯自黑海到地中海东部海域的海上交通线,随着俄军在叙利亚军事存在的增强而得到巩固。叙利亚战争期间,黑海舰队执行了大量的海上运输、区域防空、警戒、打击陆上目标等任务,仅2015年,黑海舰队总航程就超过50万海里,且俄罗斯海军四大舰队均派出舰艇参战,跨战区机动和协同作战能力大幅提高。相比之下,在与西方军事对峙的波罗的海地区,俄罗斯仅有加里宁格勒州一块飞地作为战略支撑点,波罗的海舰队难有大作为;北方舰队和太平洋舰队通向大洋的阻力相对较小,它们面对的主要是与西方同盟对抗这类传统安全威胁。

《海军政策基础》提出的海军建设目标能否实现,主要取决于俄罗斯的经济发展状况,其由于西方制裁、与周边国家关系和地缘冲突等因素的影响,具有很大不确定性。但是,俄罗斯拥有雄厚的国防工业实力和潜力、强大的武器装备研发能力,国民普遍具备民族认同感、国家荣誉感和建设强大海军的共识,国家领导层强有力,国内政局稳定,这些都是其建设强大海军的有利条件。

此外,笔者认为,《海军政策基础》提出的“在作战能力上居世界第二位”的建军目标固然清晰且振奋人心,但难以检验和评估。相比而言,“不允许其他任何国家的海上力量相对俄罗斯海军具有显著优势”的建军目标,更为切实可行并更具可操作性,也更适合作为衡量俄罗斯海军维护国家安全和利益能力的评价标准。

(作者单位:海军工程大学)

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