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只杀“恐怖分子”,不再“重建国家”特朗普对阿甩重担
歼灭恐怖主义有生力量、加强美印战略关系将成为美南亚战略主轴
特朗普此次讲话表明,美国已经基本放弃在短期内从根本上解决阿富汗问题,而将阿富汗战争作为南亚战略的一部分来看待。在增加阿富汗地面军事打击力度的同时,美国正在把阿富汗作为调整美国与当地国家间关系的一个抓手,加强与印度的战略合作。
其一,美国将采取更为直接、有效、有震慑性的手段打击恐怖组织。在特朗普的更大授权下,美军能够充分发挥其技术、组织上的优势,清剿恐怖组织的有生力量。美国将复制在打击“伊斯兰国”上的经验,与北约驻军和阿富汗安全力量一起推进战线,缩小涉恐势力的控制范围。美国很可能会增加空中轰炸、导弹、无人机等远程武器的打击,对恐怖分子形成更大震慑。
其二,美国不排除与塔利班谈判的可能性。特朗普并未将根除塔利班作为最终目标,在谈话中为与塔利班谈判结束战争留出空间,称“在军事胜利后,不排除与包括阿富汗塔利班在内的力量”寻求阿富汗问题的政治解决,但美国不会接受塔利班夺取阿富汗政权。
其三,美国正在改变对巴基斯坦和印度的态度。对巴基斯坦,美国不再念及“旧时情谊”,将加大对其施压,使其在打击恐怖主义组织和切断恐怖组织金援上全面配合美方诉求。否则,美国有可能减少对巴基斯坦的援助,甚至将其列为支恐制裁目标。对印度,美国将其看做地区安全的“最主要战略伙伴”,欢迎印度在该地区发挥更大作用。(李峥 现代国际关系研究院美国所)
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