新闻
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China

黑色系升温背后:期货贴水破解玄机

2017-08-14 14:38:33   中国青年网

一些市场人士分析,资金面因素也在发力,去杠杆力度放缓,以及CPI代表的物价持稳,在流动性宽松的背景下,资金必然会推升某类资产价格,商品因此成为新的青睐对象。

对于工业品价格上涨的持续性。上述分析人士称,关键在于需求端,尤其是地产和基建增速回落滞后效应的出现,大概率在8月下旬涨势会告一段落,并意味着“金九银十”旺季的涨势可能被提前投资。总体上看,当前周期并非长周期切换,而是政府主导的中短周期加速切换带来的政策牛市,因此后市上方空间反而由于一步到位式上涨而越来越小。

国开证券认为,考虑到环保趋严接棒供给侧改革继续强化供给端紧缩,下半年商品价格还将保持较为活跃的走势。但PPI维持高位、CPI保持低位平衡,表明需求端增长乏力导致商品价格向下游传导不利。上游产品价格的持续上涨会进一步抑制下游产品生产,再加上部分企业增产,商品价格将在冲高后逐步回落。

维护期货市场平稳运行

从2016年12月起,国内商品市场就进入漫长的震荡行情,并持续了半年时间:趋势的消退、市场波动的降低、利率持续下降等多重因素,共同形成了这个对于风险偏好者和风险规避者而言都极其困难的市场环境。但从7月开始,一些私募基金开始出手。

上海一家名为易善资产的私募基金经理表示,对于当前情形,本轮多头趋势行情从6月持续至今,市场中很多品种均已收获不小涨幅。近来国内大宗商品日内巨幅震荡,很可能由投机资金之间的意见分歧以及部分投机资金获利了结所致。但需要注意到,截至8月3日收盘,几个主要商品板块中,螺纹钢指数沉淀资金为170.6亿元,化工板块和煤炭板块分别为188.9亿元和111.5亿元,尽管化工板块和煤炭板块资金相比前一个交易日分别流出5-7亿元不等,但整体仍处于高位。

该基金经理称,6月以来,大宗商品市场经历了一轮多头趋势行情,基本面因素起到了决定性作用。另外,截至2017年7月末,美元指数已连跌5个月,市场普遍担忧自2016年4月以来的美元牛市行情即将接近尾声。作为国际大宗商品市场的主要计价货币,美元的持续走弱是此轮商品市场上涨趋势的基本动力之一。

黑色系商品6月以来领涨市场,这固然有市场跟风情绪的影响,但从根本上来说,当前黑色系的基本面,尤其是供给和需求两侧的利多因素叠加,才是支撑此轮多头行情的最坚实基础。同样的逻辑也适用于有色金属:供给、需求和成本三方面因素共同推动了有色板块的整体上行趋势。

他还指出,最近一段时间,国内商品市场波动明显增大,且普遍高于国外市场,这一点在日内波动方面体现得尤其明显:7月中旬开始,以螺纹钢为首的黑色系出现大幅波动,主力合约甚至连续十余个交易日日内振幅接近100点。

分析人士指出,近期有关去产能及环保治理的题材密集充斥市场,特别是河北采暖季钢铁限产方案出台,引起市场强烈的供应收缩预期,国内期现钢价均出现暴涨。但价格过快过猛地上涨,不但使得市场低价资源迅速聚集,也使得终端用户对价格抵制心态增强。在综合因素影响下,市场多个品种以及相关周期股可能会出现趋势性调整,应谨防价格波动剧烈带来的风险。

上一页3/3下一页
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170814/31089991_3.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/16 17:56:43

Powered by China
China