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一九行情已松动 私募看好优质成长股

2017-08-14 10:13:20   中国经济网

王晓华认为,二季度末,经济超预期迹象非常明显,叠加周期品价格波动,行情扩散到几乎所有强周期板块,应该说“一九行情”已经松动,只不过,风格不是大小切换。至于创业板,下跌幅度趋弱,技术上有超跌反弹的可能性;而且部分创业板个股在大幅下跌之后,已进入价值低估区间,它们会提前见底,给创业板带来向上动力。

前述北京中型私募总经理表示,市场风格的转换已经在进行中,最近周期股的逆袭已改变了上半年的“一九分化”现象,吸引了活跃资金的跟进。“我们觉得市场风格会有阶段性转换,前期的周期股、未来的成长股会表现出来。一些小的周期行业机会没有完全被市场激发出来,回调后还会有表现。同时,成长股的底部机会最值得重视,应该会比周期股持续性更强、机会更确定,但需要考验的是投资者的选股能力,寻找优质成长股的阿尔法。”

私募认为,在估值修复完成后,下半年蓝筹股更看重的是业绩。但在对创业板的态度上,私募出现分歧。高云程表示,从长期均值看,不管A股还是H股,蓝筹估值处于合理位置,估值修复已基本完成,后面要看公司业绩的分化。“今年以来各波行情都是来源于业绩的增长,包括上半年的蓝筹白马,7、8月份的周期股等,这种市场风格不容易转换。但上半年主要赚的是估值修复的钱,后市则要赚盈利增长的钱。各行业的龙头公司是目前性价比较高的选择,在这个阶段要多一些耐心,结合经济看公司盈利的兑现、增长,还有竞争地位、市场份额等。”

陈家琳认为,今年市场追求基本面、有质量盈利的价值投资主线不会变。但未来节奏可能和之前不一样,上半年是漂亮50行情,大小市值分化明显;而现在会穿插其它热点。整体看,部分股票上半年已涨了不少,但现在的估值和基本面仍有较好的匹配度,还会持续表现,而中小创整体的性价比还不够有吸引力。

继续看好消费、周期股

聚焦成长股底部机会

三四季度私募关注的重点领域也有一些差别,有的看好消费、周期、金融等板块,有的则开始聚焦成长股的底部机会,以及医药、国企改革等。

高云程表示,现在港股和A股估值都处于较合理位置,至少没有高估;相比美股处在历史均值之上,从这个角度看,港股和A股的投资机会、风险收益比更好。

童驯则认为,今年主线是行业景气向上、公司估值低估或合理,同时最好有涨价预期的行业板块,今年涨幅靠前的食品饮料、钢铁、有色、家电等都是业绩不错的行业,未来市场仍将围绕业绩这一主线。创业板也会逐渐开始分化,盈利较快增长、估值调整到位的公司会逐渐受到关注,而估值明显偏高的公司可能进一步调整。

陈家琳中认为主要还是围绕主线做投资,关注消费、制造、医疗服务、金融、传媒等板块,创业板也有在持续跟踪,但是还没有开始投,还在等待机会。

前述北京私募总经理表示,现在优质成长股还没有大贝塔的机会,只是一些细分行业的龙头,比如市值在100多亿、静态PE在15~18倍的公司,如果竞争优势没被削弱,管理层踏踏实实做事,调整是因为市场风格被打下来的,都应该好好关注。

王晓华表示,下半年可以在医药行业、大消费板块、国企改革等板块中寻找基本面有预期差的机会。

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