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【深度】妖股方大炭素炼成记

2017-08-11 13:48:09   中国经济网

事实上,4月底时,Φ600mm超高功率石墨电极的报价最高还仅为2.2万元/吨,前后涨了约6.27倍。

与此同时,石墨电极的主要原材料针状焦也在涨价。

据方大炭素公告称,当前针状焦售价约1500美元/吨,按照美元兑人民币大致1:6.7来计算,约1万元/吨。

以8月3日百川资讯的汇总来看,油系针状焦(熟)出厂含税价要到2.8万元/吨(中国石油锦州石化分公司),煤系针状焦(熟)的价格最高同样可达2.8万元/吨(山西宏特煤化工有限公司),低一点的如上海宝钢化工有限公司的报价也有2万元/吨,上海宝钢化工有限公司的煤系针状焦(生)报价为1.2万元/吨。

而就在此前的4月底,中国石油锦州石化分公司报出的油系针状焦(熟)还为4800元/吨,约涨了4.8倍。

“针状焦是石墨电极主要材料,是跟着石墨电极涨价的。”上述行业人士告诉界面新闻记者,针状焦用量和石墨电极差不多是1.05:1,即1吨石墨电极要用1.05吨针状焦。

值得注意的是,界面新闻记者从百川资讯汇总的“中国针状焦企业”名单中并没有看到喜科墨。方大炭素曾在公告中也称,喜科墨项目正处于“刚刚投产,生产设备逐步调试正常后,才能达产”的阶段。

按方大炭素的预测,2017年下半年喜科墨针状焦产量为7600吨。据悉,喜科墨煤系针状焦2015年11月-2016年8月试生产,经用于石墨电极生产成功后,于2017年5月20日开工,“喜科墨应该各种产品都有,但目前出的是煤系针状焦(熟焦)。”上述行业人士对界面新闻记者说。

从上可见,市场强加于方大炭素身上热炒的“针状焦”其实际涨幅并没有石墨电极强,因为后者在针状焦之外,尚有煤沥青、电力、环保等其他成本。

界面新闻记者看到,在面对各种机构“大胆”预测时,方大炭素用了“与事实不符”、“缺乏事实依据”、“缺乏判断依据”等字眼对研究机构的预测加以否定,但其自身也有“按照2017年下半年预计产量、以2017年7月的石墨电极价格估算,假设石墨电极产品价格可以维持目前水平,预计2017年下半年公司主营业务收入较上年同期约增加约48亿元”,以及“经公司财务部门测算(未经审计),7月份归属于母公司的净利润预计在4.3亿元左右”的表述。而2016年方大炭素的总计营业收入才23.95亿元,2016年全部净利润才6744.89万元,毫无疑问今年方大炭素的收入净利润规模与市场预期应当相符。

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