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英国央行为加息预期降温

2017-08-08 06:36:09   中国青年网

出于对高水平通胀和金融市场信贷风险的担忧,同时也是为了避免整个会议纪要过于鸽派,货币政策委员会也表示,“出于对其他货币审慎监管政策的考虑,未来有必要采取措施促使通胀回归至预期水平。如果经济走势符合8月份的预期,货币政策未来有必要收紧”。

尽管纪要以鹰派口吻结尾,但是各大投资机构仍然认为这份纪要明显偏鸽派。多数机构将英国加息的时间节点从明年8月份推迟至11月份或12月份。丹斯克银行表示,英格兰银行在2019年3月份脱欧谈判结束前不可能加息。

对于基准利率走势的预期也直接影响了英国各类资产价格。由于此前英国央行多次释放出鹰派声音,渣打银行等机构曾经预计,即使此次货币政策维持不变,英国央行也将透露出更多的货币政策正常化的走向和路径,释放出更多的鹰派声音。因此,在英国服务业数据走强的助推下,英镑在英国央行决定公布前曾短暂走强。随后鸽派特色明显的新闻发布会直接冲击了英镑市场,英镑对美元汇率两日内贬值超过1.4%。

英国国债市场同样发生剧烈波动。基准利率上调预期推迟导致英国国债收益率下滑。其中,对基准利率最为敏感的2年期英国国债收益率当日出现近9个月以来的最大单日跌幅,从0.28%下降至0.22%左右;10年期国债波动虽然较小,但也下滑了9个基点至6月28日以来的最低点1.14%,为近两个月来最大跌幅。

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