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美军成功拦截洲际导弹? 专家 :离实战相去甚远

2017-06-07 14:42:50   

有专家分析,我国中段反导系统研究与应用当前尚处于起步阶段,基本只能进行技术验证试验。比如,中国还缺乏天基预警系统,反导试验时不得不用地基雷达模拟预警卫星获取导弹发射信号,体系方面缺项,无法进行实战模拟试验。

王群介绍,此次试验中,美国利用天基预警系统在洲际弹道导弹发射的瞬间就获得情报,这时受地球曲率限制,海基和陆基预警系统还不能发现来袭导弹。随后,天基预警系统将信息传递给预警和跟踪雷达,持续地对来袭导弹探测和跟踪,同时跟踪雷达引导拦截弹到达交战区,释放“外大气层杀伤飞行器”实现对来袭导弹的拦截。

“这套系统美国现在已经比较齐全,但包括我国和俄罗斯等国还远远达不到美国的水平,因此肯定会有危机感。换句话说,此次试验进一步打破了目前的核威慑和战略平衡。”王群说。

但是,王群也特别指出:“这也没有必要过分担心其威胁。这些年GMD的拦截试验,实际上并不是‘背靠背’进行的,基本都事先知道时间、地点等信息,而且‘来袭’导弹上往往带有信标,引导拦截弹找到它,这有‘作假’嫌疑,离实战环境相去甚远。况且,它拦截的还仅仅是单弹头,对分导式多弹头或有先进突防掩护措施的弹头,能否拦截还是未知数。因此,此次试验的意义更多的是在政治上,以威慑诸如朝鲜和伊朗这样的国家,但对俄罗斯、中国来说却是另一回事,毕竟它们洲际导弹不但数量多,且技术先进,突防手段强,更重要的是它们对付反导系统的‘矛’日益锋利。”(张 强)

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