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英国保守党支持率持续下滑 特蕾莎·梅扩大多数优势计划或落空
然而,在2015年英国议会选举和2016年脱欧公投中,多项民调数据预测出现严重误差,引发了民众和媒体对民调方式是否科学,民调数据是否可信的讨论。今年大选期间,英国多家电视媒体,包括英国广播公司和独立电视台等都宣布不再联合民调机构开展全国性的民意调查,以减少民调数据对选民的误导。对此,柯蒂斯教授解释说,虽然多数民调机构都已经对调查方法进行了调整和改进,但由于此次大选事出突然,民调机构并没有充裕的时间对调查方法进行反复测试和验证。
柯蒂斯说:“在2015年议会大选之后,几乎所有民调机构都对调查方法进行了调整。这些调整包括对不同年龄群体的投票率进行分析,将通常不参与投票的选民加入样本中,以及对2015年议会选举和2016年脱欧公投中选民的投票习惯进行研究等等。另外,考虑到本次大选在时间上与上次大选比较接近,我们可以认为上次大选的数据更加具有参考性。因为有了这些变化,我觉得虽然不能保证这次民调预测一定准确,但至少它们不会再犯同样的错误。”
当地时间6月8日,英国将提前举行大选。据英国选举委员会发布的信息,截止5月22日选民注册的最后一天,英国已经有230多万选民注册参与大选投票,其中包括100多万18至24岁的年轻选民。
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