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英国缘何接二连三遭遇恐袭?

2017-06-06 16:34:24   国际在线

伦敦恐袭(资料图)

当地时间6月3日夜,在全国大选周即将开始的最后一个周六,英国首都市中心伦敦桥与博罗市场接连遇袭。恐怖分子驾车冲撞人群后,冲向酒吧、餐厅等人群聚集地肆意砍杀无辜群众。英国警方接到报案后仅用8分钟就击毙了3名嫌疑人,但却无法逆转7死、48伤的惨剧。这是继今年3月威斯敏斯特大桥遇袭、5月曼彻斯特体育馆大爆炸之后,英国遭遇的第三次严重恐袭,正如英国首相特雷莎•梅在次日的声明中所言,英国恐怖主义威胁正呈现新的发展趋势。

与其他欧洲大陆国家一样,英国恐袭不断,首先反映的是国际恐怖主义发展的新态势。

近年来,从斯德哥尔摩到尼斯,从布鲁塞尔到巴黎,从柏林的圣诞集市再到爱丽舍宫门前的竞选集会。西方国家民众聚集的地方,在特定的时期,很容易成为恐怖分子袭击的目标。恐怖分子的作案方式更趋灵活,如驾车撞人后,持刀行凶或枪击等做法日益普遍,袭击成本大大降低,也令西方政府、警察与情报部门防不胜防。而就恐怖嫌疑人身份来看,不论是“独狼”还是组织网络中的一人或多人联手,也不论是来自西亚还是北非,实施恐袭者均来自穆斯林移民群体。这些都是欧洲国家爆发恐袭的典型性特征,既有国际恐怖主义内生性原因,也是欧洲社会移民融合等问题累积爆发的结果。英国恐袭案也基本兼具这些特点,此次实施袭击的三名被击毙案犯,两名已确认身份,分别是来自巴基斯坦和北非的穆斯林。他们采取的手法也是先行车碾压行人,然后下车行凶。选择的作案地点,也是周末夜晚人们休闲娱乐集中的区域。

在今年3月之前,英国已经有长达十年以上的时间没有爆发过影响之大、死伤人数众多的恐袭事件。此前令人深刻的恐怖记忆还是2005年伦敦地铁大爆炸。但今年上半年以来,英国三起恐袭迭发,不由让人产生了为什么是英国,为什么是现在的疑问。可以说,除了欧洲整体反恐形势严峻的原因之外,恐怖分子在英国屡屡得手,正是当下英国政治、社会以及反恐环境变化的集中反映。

从时间来看,英国正处于政治事件的多发期和社会的脆弱敏感期,容易成为恐怖分子的袭击对象。

今年英国的三次恐袭,都处于重大政治事件的发生节点。3月22日,威斯敏斯特大桥遇袭,发生在特雷莎·梅向欧盟递交申请、启动“退欧”进程的一周之前。5月22日的曼城大爆炸和6月3日的伦敦桥袭击事件,则发生在大选季。自2016年6月英国公投决定“退欧”后,对外面临如何“退欧”的棘手难题,国家的稳定与社会的团结也面临严峻挑战。在此背景下,相较于其他主流政党,特雷莎·梅领导的保守党稳居领先地位,这也是梅敢于提出提前大选的前提,但就实际而言,其只拥有比较优势,执政基础并不稳固,民意的波动性、分化性很大。所以,梅才高喊“服务于人人”的口号,在“退欧”问题上,表现得也十分果决,并以“更强大和更繁荣”为竞选主题,争取社会大众的支持,表明在英国尤为脆弱的大背景下,梅希望以强硬的捍卫者姿态赢取民心。鉴此,恐袭一旦得手,势必加剧社会的不满与分化,对英国政府的杀伤力更强,此时打击英国,恐怖分子可获得更大政治收益。

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