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博智宏观论坛:中国大城市还不够大 京、沪都不缺地

2017-08-25 08:18:41   中国经济网

北京和上海从2013年开始这两个地方中小学数量和招生都在下降,因为配合政策抬高了外来孩子的入学门槛。在这样的背景下,不能说上海或者北京的教育资源不足,这是供给方的问题。

关于交通问题。陆铭认为制造拥堵的第一个因素是城市规划。东京和欧洲的城市每平方公里的十字路口数量超过100,东京银座超过200,而上海的浦东和北京城北这个数据只有十几。这种少十字路口宽马路的模式会导致什么结果?第一不利于疏解拥堵,当堵车的时候,没有毛细血管的小马路帮你分流交通。第二是不利于行走的,只利于开车,这样的街道没有街道的活力,北京就是这样,没有什么沿街的商业。当没有沿街商业的时候就带来结果就是人的通勤距离会增加。

第二个因素,北京和上海一样,因为城市在快速扩张,于是出现市中心人口的疏散。西方国家的大城市里实际上也曾经出现过市中心的人口疏散,在一个特定阶段里面,因为想住更大的房子宁愿上班距离远一点。但是在中国还有政策的叠加因素,因为中国在控制市中心的住房供应。从统计数据上可以看到,北京中心城区的人口份额是在下降,但是北京的优质公共资源却集中在市中心。以重点初中为例,中心三城区占有北京重点初中的72%。一到放寒暑假家长不需要送孩子上学,北京交通就得到了极大的缓解。研究表明,在控制了其他因素以后,假期内的工作日交通指数,比非假期的工作日的交通指数要低20—30%。而且由于拥堵减少以后,对尾气排放会减少,使得日均可吸入颗粒物PM10的浓度下降20微克每立方米,相当于均值的16%。所以,居住和公共服务的分离是导致交通拥堵和环境污染的原因。

第三个因素,人口疏散加剧了职住分离。上海中心城区人口在减少,大量人口移动到中环、外环以外,直接导致上班距离的增长。而上海的生产性服务业的就业岗位高度集中在市中心。因为随着现代服务业的发展,就业天然集中在市中心,便于人们之间的见面和交流。这实际是布局的问题,是职住分离的问题。

研究结果显示,大量的地块更新出现在北京的中心城区。至于地块更新以后土地的用途,有一半中心城区更新以后的地不再当房子住了,这跟北京、上海这样的区级政府税收最大化的目标有关。所以北京和上海都出现了中心城区住宅供应相对不足而商业地产相对过剩的现象。如果是市场经济则应该进行商改住,但是这件事情又是现在禁止的。通过研究分析,受到地块更新影响的这个人比没受影响的这个人通勤距离平均增加500多米,占有整个样本平均通勤距离的7%。也就是说地块更新就这一件事情导致人的通勤距离增加7%,而且这件事是累计的,每年都在发生。因为要实现控制人口和疏散中心城区人口的目标,于是把政策的目标凌驾于市场的价格所体现出来的需求。而这样的结果是居民住得越来越远,那拥堵就会产生。但习惯性的思维最后又把这个问题错误地归结为人太多。

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