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美联储改组或影响利率决策
2017-09-08 10:11:57 中国经济网
目前,美联储收紧货币政策的路线未改,预计将于2017年秋季开始缩减高达4.2万亿美元的资产负债表,之后还可能再次提高美国联邦基金利率。美联储下一次货币政策决策例会将于9月19日至20日召开。
不少经济学家认为,美国经济复苏态势平稳,美联储已无理由继续维持以应对经济危机和衰退为目的以及高于历史水平的资产规模,为平衡信贷资源配置和抑制经济过热风险,缩表势在必行。《华尔街日报》近期公布的一项调查显示,多数经济学家预计美联储将于9月开始宣布缩减资产负债表,并在12月再次加息。
英国《金融时报》分析认为,随着美联储开启缩表进程,全球美元流动性将大幅度减少,全球将普遍迎来资金紧张局面,这将对新兴经济体汇率和全球大宗商品价格走势带来冲击。2013年5月,美联储货币政策陡然由“鸽”转“鹰”,大大超出市场预期,引发市场剧烈动荡,股指下跌后迅速反弹,国债收益率大幅上行,全球资本流动逆转,冲击新兴经济体。因此,本次美联储缩表时应重视前瞻指引,避免全球市场大幅震荡。
目前,一些不确定因素仍然可能干扰美联储的货币政策正常化路线。美联储理事布雷纳德日前表示,鉴于美国通胀水平长期低迷,美联储应更加缓慢地加息,直到美联储对通胀水平回升至2%的目标充满信心。
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