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德国商报研究所主席波特·吕鲁普认为,在英国脱欧公投和特朗普当选美国总统后,全球贸易活动的动能明显减弱,而对美国和英国的出口占德国总出口的15%。他预计德国出口明年只能增长0.2%,到2018年会出现0.6%的负增长。
中德经贸合作带来更多实惠
中德经贸合作是德国经济增长的重要组成部分。德国联邦外贸与投资署专家克里斯蒂娜·奥托对本报记者表示,在全球经济不振的大背景下,中德经贸呈现积极势头。根据联邦统计局数据,今年前三个季度德国对华出口增长了3.6%,而整体出口增幅只有0.8%;德国从中国进口增长了0.7%,也高于总体进口的0.3%。中国稳固地保持了德国在欧元区以外最大贸易伙伴地位。
奥托女士指出,这得益于中国日益扩大的中产阶层和供给侧改革取得的进展。从经贸商品种类看,德国对华出口主要是汽车、汽车零配件、机械和电子产品,进口主要包括汽车零配件、机械设备、电子产品、纺织品等。可以看到中国的高附加值产品增多,也说明中国制造业正向价值链上端转移。她说,中国市场将给德国企业带来巨大机遇,中国经济开启结构性改革,有利于提振世界经济,德国也将从中获益。
中国驻德国大使馆经商处公参王卫东对本报记者表示,中德经贸合作正在从传统的双边贸易向投资合作、创新研发、区域发展等更多领域拓展。近年来中德双向投资发展迅猛,成为推动两国经贸合作向前发展的新动能,也为德国经济增长发挥支撑作用。
(本报柏林12月25日电)
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