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稳中向好态势明显 经济进入提质增效新阶段

2017-08-19 12:26:27   央广网

风险防控取得初步成效。今年以来,强监管、去杠杆政策力度明显加强,6月份末广义货币供应量(M2)余额增速降为9.6%。抑制金融“脱实向虚”取得进展,在同业、资管、表外业务和影子银行活动放缓的同时,投向实体经济的贷款和社会融资保持较快增长。企业资产负债表继续改善,5月末规模以上工业企业资产负债率为56.1%,同比下降0.7个百分点。国内资金外流明显减弱,人民币汇率保持稳定,对美元汇率略有升值,6月末外汇储备30568亿美元,连续5个月增加。

我国经济保持稳中向好总体态势,主要是坚持稳中求进工作总基调,实施以供给侧结构性改革为主线、适度扩大总需求、合理引导预期的宏观政策的结果。供给侧结构性改革改善供需结构,增强市场配置资源功能,强化企业“新陈代谢”机制,引导市场预期改善,增强了经济提质增效的内生动力。适度扩大总需求对稳定内需发挥积极作用,上半年制造业投资、基础设施投资比去年同期加快,房地产开发投资保持平稳,消费保持稳定增长,社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.4%,增速同比加快0.1个百分点。与此同时,全球经济转暖和国际贸易回升对我国经济企稳也有积极作用,上半年我国外贸出口按美元计价同比增长8.6%,较去年同期高18.2个百分点,出口增长由负转正,改变了连续两年负增长的局面。

同时,我们也要看到,当前我国经济运行中还存在不少矛盾和问题,经济提质增效的动力仍显不足,企业效益改善在很大程度上由价格上升带动,经济结构失衡的矛盾仍然突出,行业企业地区分化的态势仍较突出,实现可持续中高速增长仍面临挑战。对经济运行出现的新变化,我们要保持战略定力,坚定不移抓好供给侧结构性改革,有效应对各种风险挑战,积极创造条件推动经济发展进入提质增效新阶段。

下半年经济增长动力依然强劲

展望下半年,全球经济回暖态势有望延续,我国在中高速平台上趋稳的条件明显增多。受投资增速回调、房地产市场调整、补库存力量减弱等因素影响,下半年经济增速会有小幅回调,但不改中长期企稳向好的态势。

全球经济延续转暖走势。美国经济在个人消费和国防支出的拉动下,二季度增长2.6%,比一季度翻一番多。欧洲经济复苏趋于明显,欧元区一季度增长1.9%,失业率降至欧洲债务危机前的水平。日本经济增长和通胀水平有所改善。近期,国际货币基金组织发布的《全球经济展望》将2017年全球经济增速再次上调0.1个百分点至3.5%。随着全球经济温和复苏,下半年贸易有望延续回升态势。据世界贸易组织(WTO)预测,2017年世界货物贸易实际增长率有望达到3.9%,这将是2011年以来全球货物贸易增长率首次超过经济增长率。综合来看,下半年全球经济和国际贸易将延续温和复苏态势,但我国经济仍面临主要经济体宽松货币政策逆向调整等挑战,外贸出口保持较快增长的难度仍然较大。

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