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城镇化变身“造城” 楼市库存拖累中西部县域经济

2017-06-19 04:46:47   经济参考报

宁夏贺兰县是一个小县,近年来的房地产开发热产生了670万平方米的库存房。对于这样一个贫穷小县来说,巨量的库存房无疑是其不堪承受之重。

2016年初,江西省住建厅召开的房管局长座谈会传出的信息显示,江西省各市县均有大量的商品房库存,其中鹰潭市的库存压力全省最大,其次是上饶、新余、宜春、抚州等多个城市。

鹰潭官方的统计数据显示,截至2016年3月,鹰潭市商品房库存面积357万平方米,库存去化时间25个月,而这仅仅是已经批准销售的数据,正在建设的还没列进去。截至2016年3月,贵溪市商品房库存去化时间是33个月,其中,非住宅库存去化时间高达92个月。新余市房地产库存300多万平方米,去化时间大概两年,这还不包括在建的几十个楼盘600余万平方米。当地房管部门认为,从地方人口数量来看,完全去库存几乎是不可能的。从2015年起,当地的一些房地产公司不断破产,并且欠债数十亿元。

根据国家统计局提供的各省历年新开工和销量,海通证券宏观债券分析师姜超推算,截至去年10月底,我国商品房广义库存面积为39亿平方米,其中近8成在市县一级,去年三季度末与2015年末相比,库存不降反升的省份有河南、山西等10个,有6个省库存去化周期在4年以上,其中吉林、山西和青海库存销售比超过5年。

 要素透支后遗症开始显现

作为县域经济的重要载体,城镇化的快速推进,短期内增加了地方固定资产投资额和地方财政收入,完善了基础设施,推动了地方经济发展。但由于地方政府将大量的要素注入城镇化,高强度推进,寅吃卯粮,在土地和资金等方面不同程度地透支了地方后续发展潜力。

一直以来,地方政府债务支撑了城镇化。近年来,许多地方政府设立了城投公司。据国内权威的资信评估机构新世纪评级统计,2015年末,贵州、青海、辽宁、云南、广西、内蒙古地方政府债务余额分别是其当年一般公共预算收入的5.84、4.42、4.13、3.32、2.83和2.79倍。记者了解到,这些债务除了部分用于扶贫外,大部分投入了和城镇化有关的基础设施建设、棚户区改造中。

据了解,2015年底,全国人大常委会部分委员的调研结果显示,我国有100多个市本级、400多个县级债务率超过100%。财政部通过风险评估,将全国90多个市、300多个县纳入风险预警名单。据了解,这些债务,一部分是政府担保的银行贷款,一部分是政府债券。

当下,在一些三四线城市,房地产权益问题频发,地方政府也因此面临新的压力。去年4月中旬,一群业主拉着横幅出现在江西宜春市政府大楼前,他们之前买下的商铺,如今租不出去,要求退还给开发商。

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