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侠客岛:印度的实力到底怎么样?

2017-07-09 03:52:50   侠客岛

印度的野心是什么?我不知道怎么回答这个问题,用印度自己的说法,它要当leading power,领导型力量。印度的大国雄心大家都知道,尼赫鲁为什么搞不结盟运动?因为它其实想当第三势力的领袖,它要当头,这是一定的。

如果说它真有野心,有几点。第一,在南亚,尤其是它周边的几个国家里头,印度依然寻求控制这些国家,或者要维持它既有霸权。它所谓的“邻国第一”政策,目的就是跟周边国家发展互联互通,能够更容易地控制它们。第二,大国方面,我觉得它基本的发展方向是侧重发展经济,当然很重要一点是它首先确保国家安全。而安全问题主要靠美国,所以它表现的比较亲美。

印度对中国的战略重要性是不言而喻的。它是中国周边国家,又是大国、发展中国家,对崛起的中国而言,需要同印度发展良好的关系。

我不知道现在的教科书怎么写1962年的中印战争,我印象中可能简单地谈及就带过了,在我们看来可能也就几个月的战争,好像不值一提。但是对印度而言,却感觉受到很大创伤,甚至可以说这是它独立之后受到的最大打击。有种说法是尼赫鲁因为这场战争的打击而去世的。战前他能一只手举起孙子,战后都抱不动。

我记得去年我在印度开一个会,在我们互相介绍的时候,一个印度人第一句话就跟我说,我参加过1962年的战争。我们跟印度人交往的时候,不太容易想到这场战争。但印度人跟中国人交往的时候,很可能很多人首先会想到这场战争。

经常跟印度人打过交道就会知道,印度人事实上是非常有韧性的,当然说固执也是对的,说好听点就是百折不挠。跟印度人谈判根本没有什么好谈的,绕来绕去,总是会被带回到印度人原来的立场,它不懂得妥协和互惠。

很多中国公司纷纷投资印度是可以理解的,尤其是去年,有一股投资印度的热潮。第一个确实是中国市场竞争程度很高,挣钱很难,至少有些企业,像国内的工程公司要走出去,自然就会想到印度,因为印度跟中国的体量比较近,发展的前景比较好。2016年房地产公司去印度投资的动作很快,为什么?有关负责人告诉我,很重要的一点就是基于城镇化。他觉得印度城镇化的比例仍然比较低,所以如果按照中国的经验的话,印度房地产将会有比较长时间的快速发展。

印象

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