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卡外交“塌方”:沙特立威,伊朗受益,美国闹心

2017-06-06 09:58:49   澎湃

卡塔尔遭遇“围殴”祸起何端?

卡塔尔之所以犯众怒,看似突然,实际有章可循,偶然中隐藏着必然。断交潮背后还具有深层次的原因,根本原因在于卡塔尔触碰了沙特等国的底线,它们认定卡塔尔“支持恐怖组织”,认定与伊朗有暧昧关系,通过断交敲打卡塔尔,约束卡外交行为。此次断交潮表面上看是多国与卡塔尔断交,实际上是沙特和卡塔尔之间矛盾的公开化,是长期以来沙特和卡塔尔之间矛盾的缩影。

海湾国家之间的外交危机不是第一次。2014年3月,沙特、阿联酋和巴林发表联合声明,宣布从即日起召回各自驻卡塔尔大使,以抗议卡塔尔干涉海合会成员国内政。与发生在的6月5日的断交风波相比,同样的主角,同样的原因,不过外交危机的范围扩大化了,外交危机的烈度升级了。因此,断交不是凭空而生的,具有历史的溯源。而5月底的黑客事件打开了沙卡之间潘多拉的盒子。

黑客事件是此次断交外交的导火索。所谓的黑客事件,就是在美国总统特朗普访问中东国家后,卡塔尔新闻社援引国家元首在一场军方庆典上的讲话,他表示伊朗是“不容忽视的伊斯兰强国”,并且“对伊朗怀有敌意是不智的”。阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯等国自5月24日起开始屏蔽卡塔尔媒体。

事后卡塔尔迅速辟谣,称卡塔尔新闻社官网遭受黑客攻击。尽管卡塔尔澄清事件,但是影响持续发酵。到现在为止,对于网传的挺伊朗言论,到底是黑客攻击栽赃,还是卡塔尔对伊朗立场的真实写照,仍是无头公案,未有定论。但在沙特眼中,认定卡塔尔公然与沙特唱反调,触犯了沙特底线。5月27日,卡塔尔埃米尔塔米姆�本�哈马德�阿勒萨尼向鲁哈尼连任总统表示祝贺,在沙特看来,这一行为又是公开“叫板”沙特对抗伊朗的立场,

因为黑客事件发生的时间较为特殊,正值美国总统特朗普访问沙特之后。面对特朗普在对付伊朗上的鼓劲,沙特春风得意。卡塔尔亲伊朗的态度破坏了初步形成反伊朗的初步格局,影响沙特与伊朗之间的争夺地区主导权。沙特将伊朗视为主要的地区竞争者,自然无法忍受卡塔尔在伊朗问题上的暧昧不清。

当然卡塔尔惹众怒的另一个原因在于被沙特等国认定“支持恐怖组织”,这也是沙特等国与之断交的共同理由。打击恐怖组织是中东地区最大的共识,也是聚拢力量的最有用的“王牌”。沙特、阿联酋面对极端组织“伊斯兰国”(IS)、基地组织的威胁,而埃及还面临穆斯林兄弟会的安全威胁。

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