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俄专家:俄为苏联解体最大赢家 重建联盟思想仍在

2016-12-13 03:18:52   参考消息网

在各国作出有利于右翼的选择后,就不可能在全世界实施大规模社会主义计划了。

恢复任何形式的联盟国家也存在问题——这需要试图参与联盟的各国政府强迫本国社会接受自己的意志。

只有俄罗斯复兴

需要提醒读者的是,俄罗斯苏维埃联邦社会主义共和国既是苏联的脊梁,也是联盟的黏合剂、资源基地、军事保护者和历史中心。任何一个甚至是几个共和国脱离苏联都不会影响其存在,只有俄罗斯的退出导致苏联多米诺骨牌般坍塌。

俄罗斯领导人的参与在别洛韦日叛乱中发挥了决定性作用。即使不愿离开苏联的中亚各加盟共和国也不得不接受这一不可避免的事实。

不过,苏联解体恰逢全球重大变革期。基于人口和领土的主权不再发挥关键作用,而是通过控制经济和提供军事政治保护的方式让位于对主权国家的实际控制能力。

这种情况使强大经济体可以与弱小经济体进行有利于自己的不平等交换。相比于直接合并,强者从与弱者合作中获得的物质利益更多。它不必为仆从国民众的生活水平负责——这是新独立国家政府的问题。

俄罗斯在军事、经济、政治、外交、人事等各方面均强于其他原属苏联的加盟共和国。它还拥有全苏联乃至全世界最丰富的自然资源(水、森林和矿藏)。在工业实力上能与俄罗斯比肩的只有乌克兰,但它已经迅速衰落,这既是管理不当的结果,也是因为失去了直接获取俄罗斯廉价资源的机会。

因此,在1990年代危机后,最终只有俄罗斯重新崛起,并使人民生活水平比危机前更进了一大步。

在对比了解体前后俄罗斯与其他前苏联加盟共和国的福利水平差距之后,很多民众得出结论,俄罗斯不但不是苏联解体的输家,反而是赢家。

俄独立利大于弊

即使从政治角度来看,脱离苏联的领土本来也不受俄罗斯当局控制。控制所有加盟共和国是苏联领导人的特权,而俄罗斯与弱小的摩尔多瓦、立陶宛基于同样理由听命于前者。

同时,俄罗斯的政治领导人必须加入领导苏联的苏共中央政治局,才能获得管理和分配俄罗斯资源的权力。

在军事方面,拥有大量远程高精度武器、能对敌实施战役和战略打击的现代化军队让拥有相应技术和武装力量的国家能够随心所欲地在世界任何地方打非核战争。这大大降低了领土面积的战略意义。主要作战方式转变为现代合同作战的事实进一步降低了领土面积的意义,它要求不战而屈人之兵。

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