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贾跃亭:一个会计的资本腾挪术

2017-07-14 09:22:43   

乐视到底在汽车上投资了多少钱?一开始据说要投资200亿,后来又说500亿。但是实际上远没有那么多,具体数字难以估计,但根据各方面的信息,现在乐视在汽车上已经至少投资了20亿,是靠谱的。

20亿仍然没有一分钱利润,尤其是没有一分钱现金流,对乐视来说,是要命的。

我真的搞不懂贾会计为什么要搞乐视汽车,难道是进行一笔更大的政治投机?

政治投机也不是不行,关键是得有那实力。也得看看自己是不是人家的嫡系。

或者贾跃亭对自己的融资能力很有信心,或者他已经疯了,在孤注一掷地豪赌。长远来看,必然是疯了。因为就算乐视能继续融资,每次都上百亿、几百亿地融资,但他越来越庞大的帝国,还是撑不下去!

因为他的业务实在太分散,而乐视也缺乏各方面的人才。

我不否认,乐视在推出视频业务、自制视频、超级电视、手机乃至汽车时,总是让人眼睛一亮。这反映出贾跃亭敏锐的市场嗅觉和高超的用户体验。

乐视的产品在刚推出时,也确实有相当多的闪光点,而且初期的质量也可以。

但是,乐视能在这么多领域,始终和众多专业公司抗衡吗?能始终跟上并引领技术和消费潮流吗?

这概率实在是太低了。从长期来看,是不可能的!

历史上从来没有一个人,一个公司,这么搞成功过!

业务,不是不可以多元化,BAT现在的业务都是多元化。但是纵观历史上成为巨头的多元化公司,它们的共同特点是:

1、始终有一块最挣钱的业务,能源源不断地带来巨额利润和现金流!

对于BAT来说,是搜索、电商、以及围绕QQ海量用户产生会员费和利润;对于微软来说,是销售PC软件,对于谷歌来说,是搜索;对于过去的福特汽车、标准石油公司、杜邦来说,是汽车、石油和化工产品。总之,人家都有一块长期挣钱、并且利润丰厚的业务,而且规模很大!

乐视有吗?

2、有了雄厚的财力之后,再围绕一个核心搞多元化。

BAT,都没有放弃自己的核心,而是进一步加强核心的力量,继续做大做强。乐视围绕什么核心呢?如果说之前的各项业务都是围绕视频,那么乐视汽车围绕什么?大家在汽车里看视频吗?一堆产品堆起一个“生态化反”?更何况乐视有雄厚的财力吗?就靠日复一日的融资,让贾会计带领一帮二流人才和人家一流的专业公司竞争?

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