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中国将重塑全球能源格局 为削减耗能提供路线图

2017-08-23 00:41:40   参考消息

参考消息网8月23日报道 外媒称,2017年伊始,中国宣布到2020年要投入3600亿美元发展可再生能源,同时取消85座火电厂的修建计划。3月份,中国有关部门说,中国在能源效率、碳排放强度以及清洁能源比重方面已经提前实现官方制定的目标。另外,就在上个月,中国的能源管理部门国家能源局出台了降低煤炭依赖度的新举措。


资料图:光伏发电板。新华社记者杨世尧摄

世界报业辛迪加网站8月21日刊登国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所资深研究员姜克隽、麦肯锡资深合伙人乔纳森·沃策尔撰写的题为《中国的再生能源革命》的文章称,以上只是体现中国成为全球能源变革中心的最新迹象,这场变革是在技术变革与可再生能源成本下降的推动下形成的。但是,中国不仅是投资发展可再生能源,淘汰煤炭,它还呈现出另一个特点,即在全球能源需求中占据的比重不断扩大,也就是说,中国经济在向服务业、消费型增长过渡的过程中,也会重塑世界资源行业的格局。然而,也有一些因素在减少全球能源需求,这些因素包括住房、厂房、商业大楼的能源效率提高以及因为自动驾驶汽车和共享出行的迅速推广带来运输行业能源需求下降。

根据麦肯锡全球研究所发布的新报告《超越超级循环周期:技术如何重塑资源产业》,这些趋势使得一次能源的需求增长放缓。如果迅速采用新技术的趋势延续下去,人们对一次能源的需求可能在2025年见顶。随着能耗强度下降,能源效率提升,今后20年全球经济的能源生产率可能提高40%到70%。

文章称,虽然全球能源需求增长放缓,但是中国在其中占据的比重却在不断增加。到2035年,中国占全球一次能源需求的比重可能达到28%,现在是23%,相比之下美国届时可能从现在的16%减少到只有12%。

中国在削减能耗强度方面已经取得了显著的进步:从1980年到2010年,中国经济增长了17倍,但是能源消耗量仅仅增长了4倍。根据世界银行的数据,这说明产生单位国民生产总值所消耗的能源下降了70%。中国政府在十三五计划中设定的目标是,从2016年到2020年要让能耗强度实现15%的降幅,中国已经在稳步朝着这个目标前进。

文章称,中国的能耗强度之所以下降,可再生能源功不可没。中国希望成为这个领域的全球领军者,每年对国内可再生能源的投入超过1000亿美元,是美国国内可再生能源投资的两倍,比美国与欧盟年均投资之和还要高。此外,中国对境外可再生能源投资320亿美元,比任何国家都多,中国的一流公司越来越多地在全球可再生能源价值链上占据顶端位置。

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