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金灿荣预测未来10年的世界大变局:印度没戏

2017-08-03 09:09:06   瞭望智库

我今天很大胆地选了一个大题目——“未来10年世界可能的大变局”,其实社会科学的预测功能比较差,主要还是做事后诸葛亮,把过去犯的错误和成功的经验总结一下,以便以后走得更稳。

社会科学的预测跟自然科学比不了,但是既然我选了这个题目,我就大胆预测一下,因为总得有一个方向性的预测,然后大家可以进行批判,在相互批驳中可以找到某种靠谱的路径。

为了简便起见,我就把所想到的未来十年的趋势归结为十个方面。

1大国关系更加严峻

首先,未来十年决定国际关系的还是大国,我觉得这是第一要素,大国关系还是第一位的。

尽管我们学者喜欢讲一些边边角角的东西,会把那些非传统安全性问题看得很高,但是从历史经验来看,大国关系对国际关系最重要,未来十年大国关系要比过去十年更复杂,这是一个大的判断。“大国”很难定义,我只是说从经验角度看,在我这里是指六个国家和国家集团,即中国、美国、俄罗斯、欧盟(作为一个整体,它的行动能力相当于一个大国)、日本、印度,但巴西没有算进来,虽然它的体量足以成为一个大国,但是很可惜,它的行动能力比较差。

我去过巴西两次,巴西朋友说上帝一定是巴西人,因为他对巴西太厚爱了。在巴西,你跟他们谈“饥寒交迫”,他们彻底不理解,因为他们很少有“饥”的感觉,物产丰富,随便拿个东西就可以吃,“寒”就更没有了,对吧。

有巴西朋友到北京来,当时正值1月份,我们跟他说要多穿衣服,他说好,结果他带了三条长袖衬衫,然后一出北京机场就给冻一跟头。因为他平时就是短袖短裤,带三条长袖,不就是多带衣服吗,对不对。巴西这个地方就是条件太好,太好了以后就容易有问题,就是散漫、组织能力很差,而人类的进步基本上是靠组织能力来衡量的,组织能力越强,发达程度就越高。

文扬老师提出一个说法叫“广土巨族”,我觉得挺好,这个是属于中国社会科学的元概念,可以发展出理论的,“广土巨族”背后实际上是一个很艰难的组织能力提高的过程,巴西就缺这个东西,所以其实上帝真是喜欢他。我在飞机上两次横贯巴西,都羡慕得不得了,850万平方公里的土地,一点黄秃秃的土地都没有,不像我们北京,北京要往欧洲去,都是黄秃秃的,只在半个小时以内能看到绿色。地球最大的肺亚马逊森林在巴西,地球的肾亚马逊河也在那,水量丰富到什么程度呢,它在枯水期的水量是我们长江的8倍,丰水期那就是海了,看不到边的,具有如此体量的巴西本来是个大国,但是很可惜它缺乏组织能力,不能算“大国”。

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