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地方债发行下半年全面提速 上半年已发行1.86万亿元

2017-07-11 04:15:52   经济参考报

今年上半年,我国地方债发行规模为1.86万亿元,发行节奏和规模都低于去年同期水平,其中新增债券发行4545.3亿,仅完成全年总量不到三成。置换债券三年过渡期已近后期,尚余约1.8万亿元规模有待置换。业内预计,按照全年发债的额度,下半年新增债和置换债发行都将提速。

据中诚信国际统计,今年1至6月,我国地方债发行总额为18609.75亿元,发行期数为379只。“发行规模在上半年的后半段有所提高,但整体低于去年同期。”中诚信国际研究院、地方政府与城投行业分析师杨小静对《经济参考报》记者表示,发行利率方面,6月份资金面有所缓解,6月发行利率有一定下降,但当前发行成本依然为地方债发行以来的高点。

“上半年地方政府债券的发行节奏和规模,都明显比不上去年同期的水平。”社科院中国财经战略研究院财政审计研究室汤林闽博士对《经济参考报》记者表示,在他看来,一方面,这与利率成本较高有关。由于货币政策收紧等因素,2017年上半年地方债券的发行利率总体处于较高水平,且呈现出逐渐提高的势头,地方债发行的难度上升,地方政府的发行意愿也受到一定的抑制。另一方面,这也与加强地方债、地方举债融资的监管和规范有关。从2016年下半年到2017年上半年,地方债风险分类处置、规范地方政府举债融资行为等一系列举措出台,在举借债务、开展举债融资行为等方面,地方政府受到的限制增加,行动也更为谨慎。这些都在不同程度上拖慢了地方债发行的节奏、制约了地方债发行的规模。

据统计,上半年新增债券共发行4545.3亿元。其中,新增一般债券2016.9亿元,新增专项债1103.2亿元。杨小静指出,根据2017年政府工作报告中对2017年地方政府债券工作的安排,2017年计划发行新增地方政府债券共计1.63万亿元,其中新增一般债券0.83万亿元,新增专项债券0.8万亿元,相比较于2016年实际发行的11684.7亿元新增债券,计划增加4600亿元,今年新增专项债券有了大幅度提高。而上半年新增债券的发行进度较慢,仅完成全年总量的27.89%。因此预计下半年新增债券发行速度会加快。

汤林闽也认为,下半年地方债的发行量和发行节奏都会增加。他指出,地方债置换的三年过渡期已经接近后期,目前需要置换的债务存量还有一定的规模。“不论置换工作是在2017年结束,还是在2018年结束,2017年的置换工作都非常重要,置换债的发行规模应当不会少于3万亿元。而从数据上看,上半年只发行了1.2万亿元左右,下半年置换债的发行规模和发行节奏都应当超过上半年。”

政策层面,近期财政部先后发文清理整顿地方政府的违法违规融资行为,先是在4月底联合其他五部门发布50号文,全面清理整顿包括地方政府违规担保,通过平台公司违规举债,利用PPP、产业基金变相增加政府债务等在内的违规行为,此后又在6月发布87号文,专门规范地方政府购买服务。在“堵后门”的同时,也“开前门”,例如62号文允许地方政府发行土地储备专项债,50号文中也明确允许地方政府出资设立融资担保公司,以期建立地方政府“阳光化”的举债机制。

杨小静认为,从近期地方债监管层面的政策来看,50号文和87号文是规范地方政府融资行为的重要政策,监管方面已经明令禁止违规的融资行为,在“堵后门”的同时,也利好一些“开前门”的融资方式,如地方政府债这种规范化的举债方式。考虑到地方政府在基础设施领域依然具有巨大的融资需求,而基础设施建设类项目适用于地方政府专项债之类的政府债券,因此,未来,一方面在地方政府债的规模上,尤其是专项债的规模上会在预算范围内有增长的需求,另一方面,会积极拓展专项债的发行类别,以匹配地方基础设施类项目的融资需求。

责任编辑:高宗影 CN060
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