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中国汽油消费量首现负增长 中石化停止外采汽油

2017-06-27 10:04:38   中国证券网

成品油消费的低迷不仅引发市场主体大打价格战,也令一些主营单位的采购策略发生改变。记者昨日从多家机构证实,国内最大的成品油零售商中石化集团自6月份起就基本停止外采汽油。据悉,此举的目的仍是为了消化掉因汽油消费负增长而不断推高的库存。

“一直以来,主营单位为了降低成本,都会按计划安排外采订单,向地方炼厂(地炼)采购汽柴油资源。但目前在成品油市场仍不景气的格局下,外采也越来越勉为其难。”金联创市场分析师徐鹏对记者说。

据金联创的监测数据显示,2017年1月至4月,我国汽油表观消费量总量为4012.54万吨,同比下滑0.37%,多年来首次出现负增长。作为对比,2011年至2016年期间1月至4月汽油表观消费量总量的平均涨幅则为10.42%。

“一方面,汽油表观消费量出现大的反转;另一方面,在柴油需求近年萎缩严重的形势下,国内炼厂不断调高汽柴油产出比,导致汽油产量保持快速增长。”徐鹏提供的监测数据显示,近三年来汽油产量平均增长率高达9%。而汽车销量增长却逐年放缓,汽油需求仅增长不足5%。在此背景下,汽油供需失衡已成当下成品油市场一个不容忽视的问题。

据他介绍,中石化、中石油的销售模式历来都是以零售为主,汽油零售量在总销量占比中超过八成。2017年一季度,中石化、中石油旗下的加油站销量首次出现下滑,虽然幅度微弱,但对这两大成品油销售主力来说还是带来不小的震动,也在一定程度上成为4月以来各地加油站掀降价潮的诱因。另外,作为辅助的销售途径,批发、直销也随着今年批发行情的持续下滑而严重受阻,这进一步强化了市场的悲观气氛。

自今年4月份以来,国内成品油批发行情持续处于下行通道。跌跌不休的行情无疑加大了外采的价格倒挂风险,停止外采也成为规避风险的一项举措。

与此同时,主营单位的产量却仍维持在高位,在供需失衡状态下直接导致了库存攀升。据一位知情的内部人士透露,目前主营成品油库存普遍较高,停止外采或是为了加快排库。

值得注意的是,5月底开始国际原油价格再度重挫,令本已孱弱的市场雪上加霜。而地炼在前期检修装置陆续恢复正常后,开工率明显提升,进一步激化了供需失衡。

“这次停止外采,中石化是为了消化自身库存,平衡销售公司与自身炼厂的资源情况。”卓创资讯分析师张瑾怡告诉上证报记者,这个现象过去并不经常发生,客观上也抑制了地炼汽油的出货,因为以往“外采”是地炼出货的一个主要途径。

在一些业内人士看来,主营单位此时切断了地炼借主营外采化解销售压力的渠道,已经令后者成品油销售压力陡增。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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