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参考消息网5月26日报道 美媒称,一些经济学家警告中国可能面临和日本相同的命运,即债务驱动的经济繁荣最终将换来长达数年的沉迷与停滞。但从几项指标来看,日本的情况比中国更糟糕。
资料图片:上海市陆家嘴地区夜景新华社记者陈飞摄
美国《华尔街日报》网站5月25日报道称,自从2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO),中国就在本世纪迅速超越日本,成为全球第二大经济体,挑战美国的头把交椅。报道称,与日本一样,巨大的资本支出也是中国经济增长的核心所在。房地产价格大幅上涨,是今日中国和上世纪80年代末期的日本的一个共同之处。另一个相似之处是,1990年前后,日本人口看来注定会在接下来的15年-20年里开始下降,后来的事实证明确实如此。围绕人口老龄化和人口萎缩的预期导致日本消费者和企业信心恶化。同样地,联合国目前预计中国人口将在未来15年里即2030年代初见顶,随后将急剧减少。
不过《华尔街日报》报道称,从几项指标来看,日本的情况比中国更糟糕。尽管2017年第一季度日本经济折合成年率增长2.2%,表现相对强劲,但是仍远远低于中国经济6.9%的增速。同时,日本的债务问题仍比中国要严重得多。
日本央行行长黑田东彦不久前承认,中国具有一些相对优势。他在东京举办的《华尔街日报》首席执行长理事会上表示,在上世纪80年代后期,日本已经成为一个高度发达的经济体,经济增速远低于6.5%,人口增长几乎停滞;但就中国目前的情况而言,人口仍在增长,城镇化进程还在持续。
黑田东彦表示,中国政府正在实行一种微妙的平衡术;一方面,他们希望保持相对较高的经济增速,另一方面,他们又希望避免硬着陆;到目前为止,中国政府处理得很好。
责任编辑:杨晓晨 CN067
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