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细看日本经济增长的内涵与外延

2017-05-24 16:07:04   

日前公布的日本一季度经济数据显示,剔除物价变动因素后一季度实质GDP环比增长0.5%,折合年率为2.2%。3月底结束的2016财年日本GDP实质增长率为1.3%,实现连续2年增长。针对普遍认为的1%左右潜在增长率,这个1.3%算是达到了预测值的上限,但除了日本政府有些许欣慰外,日本社会上下少有兴奋。日本经济到底处于何种状况,值得细看究竟。

拉动日本经济此轮回升的主要动力是出口行情向好。出口环比增长2.1%,北美和亚洲市场需求正旺,特别是以中国手机制造业为代表的亚洲半导体、机械制造等需求强劲。但是,占日本GDP总量60%的消费增长乏力,虽有所增长但只有0.4%,而且还是由于上季度气候原因导致蔬菜等生鲜食品价格上涨的反弹所致。即使如此,内外需求的不平衡仍暴露出日本经济的深层次结构性问题。

一是消费能否保持增加势头令日本经济界捏把冷汗。虽然最新公布的大学本科毕业生就职率达97.6%,创历史最高水平,但家庭收入增长乏力,工资等家庭报酬所得仅比去年同期增加0.5%,与上季度的2.2%相比明显减弱。近年来,一些出口型企业和大型跨国企业利润有所提高,但管理层却以前景不明为由不愿提高员工工资,把更多利润转为企业内部留存。此外,医疗、养老护理等费用中个人承担比例可能提高。计划中的2019年10月份增加消费税,自民党议论的增加幼儿保险,甚至安倍改宪方案的由头之一——普及高中义务教育等都预示着家庭硬性支出可能增加。另一个统计数字显示,一季度名义GDP为负0.03%,说明国民实际生活感受与政府统计数字的反差很大。家庭收入不稳是影响消费心理和消费观念的重要原因。

二是投资不足且不具持续性影响社会心理。企业设备投资环比仅增加0.2%,说明现有投资饱和,前景投资乏力。住宅投资增加0.7%,且连续5个季度增加是利好消息,但这些多发生在城市地区,并包含东京奥运会的选手村建设。据报道,随着城市规划限制的放宽,东京在建中的30层以上大楼有60多栋,但只能说明资本向大城市集中,中小城市和地方的凋敝已经显现。2020年东京奥运之后的增长点尚未找到。公共投资下降0.1%,且连续3个季度下降,说明财政政策底气不足。

三是日本的社会结构问题根深蒂固。社会老龄化造成的社保福利压力增大,出生率下降使人口结构上粗下细,如今老人用纸尿布消费量超过儿童是年龄结构倒三角的具体写照。日本政府实施延迟退休并鼓励妇女就业政策增加社会劳动力,但劳动效率丝毫没有提高,造成的不过是中低收入阶层扩大。日本国内服务业等劳动生产率仅相当于美国等西方国家的一半,表明问题很严重。

连续5个季度实现GDP增长似乎是日本政府很欣慰的事情,但纵观20多年来的4次连增事例可见,1995年1月份开始的6个季度连增中,除阪神大地震的灾后重建外,当时的企业设备投资增加率最高达到4%;1999年4月份开始的8个季度连增中,IT经济带动出创新发展的新领域,给大众带来前景期待;2005年1月份开始的6个季度连增中,全球化及出口带来了制造业设备投资的增加。相比之下,本轮增长中表现突出的仅是出口额增加,而设备投资和个人消费始终在低位徘徊,这说明国际贸易保护主义势力抬头对日本企业心理的影响是深层次的。

安倍经济学列举的发展公式是就业增加、收入提高、消费扩大、带动物价上浮,从而摆脱通缩实现经济良性循环。根据经济学家观察,除国际原油价格上涨带来的输入性价格上升和蔬菜等季节性商品价格变化外,“尚难确定日本已摆脱通缩”。从“安倍三支箭”到“新三支箭”,促进产业结构改革、提高生产效率等课题已经议论很久,但落实起来却是干打雷不下雨。

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