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中国正遭遇“洋猪肉”挑战 美国生猪只卖2.5元/斤

2016-11-30 08:11:05   每日经济新闻

2016年国内生猪价格走势及猪肉进口量

今年前10个月,我国生猪产业链表现吊诡:猪价从年初起飞,并于5月达到历史高位;与此同时,往年“猪周期”常见的散户追高并未同步出现。据农业部数据,今年10月生猪存栏37709万头,同比下降3.4%。伴随上述现象,今年以来“洋猪肉”进口也达到历史性高位。

而巨量进口的背后,是悬殊的生猪内外价差。事实上,横亘中国生猪产业链20年的“猪周期”,眼下正受到有史以来最高进口量的“洋猪肉”的挑战。“洋猪肉”咄咄来袭,市场又将几分天下?生猪产业链表现吊诡,潮水退去都有谁在裸泳?《每日经济新闻》记者试图从这些数据以及现象的背后,挖掘出中国生猪产业链向规模化演进的真实图景。

今年前10个月,共有139.4万吨猪肉漂洋过海,进口到中国。据海关数据显示,2016年10月我国进口猪肉共11.54万吨,环比下降17.8%,但与去年同期相比上涨仍43.5%,而1~10月份累计进口猪肉量更是比去年同期大幅增长132.8%。

“美国目前生猪价格约为每斤2.5元,中国则是每斤8.5元。”美国肉类出口协会副总裁何嘉德告诉《每日经济新闻》记者,“进入中国的猪肉,还会按屠宰分割后的不同部位价格不同。目前,美国生猪养殖者每卖一头猪,会亏损约140元人民币。”

中美两国间生猪价格相差6元/斤,为何会形成如此大的价差,是否又会对市场上的国内生猪价格产生巨大影响呢?

“一头猪大约可以屠宰出体重70%以上的猪肉,现价每斤8.5元的生猪,可得出的猪肉成本约为12元,进入批发环节后还要再加上屠宰企业的利润。”中国生猪预警网首席分析师冯永辉告诉《每日经济新闻》记者,“这也意味着,粗略计算美国生猪屠宰后猪肉成本约在每斤3.6元,即使按照不同部位分别计算,绝大部分进口猪肉也都会比中国更便宜。”

“洋猪来了”绞杀国内猪价

以一种廉价进军的姿态,今年以来“洋猪肉”大量涌入中国。

据弘羊生物数据监测,今年前9个月,猪肉进口量比上年全年进口量还多出了64.4%,1~9月生猪产品贸易逆差达到36.21亿美元,同比增长2.6倍。而“洋猪肉”大举进军中国,其原因在于今年以来我国生猪产能与实际消费需求出现了缺口。

以粮农组织的历年统计数据来看,我国是世界第一大猪肉生产国以及消费国,每年我国都生产出占到全球产量一半的猪肉,同时也大致消费掉全球消费量的一半。每年,中国的猪肉消费量都在5500万吨上下,根据粮农组织的预测,到2022年,中国猪肉消费需求有望达到6078万吨。

而今年我国生猪产能是多少呢?根据兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委此前撰文,2015年我国国内猪肉供给缺口达80万吨,美国农业部预测数据显示,2016年中国这一缺口将进一步扩大至107万吨。

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