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中韩建交25周年:被中国抛弃 韩第8大工业国能否保住

2017-08-24 07:57:17   瞭望智库

今天是中韩建交25周年纪念日。

中韩关系在2016年下半年以后迅速转冷。

从朴槿惠不顾中国一再警告,一意孤行地推进在韩国布署“萨德”系统开始,韩国进入多事之秋,此后朴槿惠因为“闺蜜干政”丑闻下台,韩国原执政党大国家党也随之分裂。在动荡的政局中,共同民主党的文在寅当选为韩国新总统。

文在寅曾多次向中国释放希望改善中韩关系的所谓“善意”。然而在2017年7月29日,文在寅违背了通过国会批准等法律程序来决定布署“萨德”系统的竞选承诺,下令追加布署剩余4辆“萨德”发射车。所谓“善意”也就显得荒诞不经了。

韩国朝野并未深刻认识到布署“萨德”系统将带来的严重后果。包括文在寅总统在内的韩国政界,大概以为后果仅仅是“中国不高兴”——乐天百货受抵制、韩国游遇冷、“韩流”文化消退可能都是暂时的,等到过几天中国心情好了,中韩关系还会再度升温,中韩经贸往来还会蒸蒸日上。

不得不说,这是韩国政界极度短视的战略误判,而他们必将为这种误判付出极为惨重的代价。经济基础决定上层建筑,中韩关系的质变将从经济层面深刻影响韩国未来的发展趋势。

文|徐实瞭望智库特约国际观察员

本文为瞭望智库原创文章,如需转载请在文前注明来源瞭望智库(zhczyj)及作者信息,否则将严格追究法律责任。

简要地回顾一下中韩关系发展史,金大中、卢武铉这两位韩国总统思想比较进步,在其执政的1998-2008年间大大促进了中韩关系的发展。继任的李明博总统明显亲美,但中韩经贸合作在其任期内仍有较大发展。2013年朴槿惠接替李明博担任韩国总统,此后中韩之间的政治交往和经贸合作一度升温。

在经济层面,中国希望通过《中韩自由贸易协定》加强中韩经济合作,用拉动韩国GDP增长的“实惠”稳固两国关系。在政治层面,两国领导人的互动频繁,朴槿惠甚至成为中国2015年抗战胜利七十周年大阅兵的贵宾。

然而,韩国布署“萨德”系统扭转了中韩关系发展的趋势。

中国曾通过外交途径多次发出警告,布署“萨德”系统将使中韩关系发展的成果前功尽弃,但朴槿惠不顾中国强烈反对、一意孤行。这意味着,韩国在重大战略决策上完全倒向美国,根本不在乎中国的战略利益。

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