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【老外谈】一带一路将带来均衡和可持续的模式转变

2017-05-15 11:39:40   中国日报网

 

   

沙姆沙德•阿克塔尔 Shamshad Akhtar (联合国副秘书长)

不论是从产量、贸易等经济维度,还是现如今在可持续和包容性发展议题上表现出来的话语权和领导力,以及追求低碳发展路径的决心来看,中国在全球范围内扮演的角色愈加重要。眼下,中国正依托自身强大的基础设施建设能力,以及亚洲基础设施投资银行和金砖国家新发展银行等新融资平台的雄厚资本实力,积极践行“一带一路”倡议,随着中国的参与度和影响力不断增强,可以预见我们将会看到新的模式出现。

如果“一带一路”倡议能够增强成员国之间的互信,它将会成为真正意义上的“游戏规则改变者”。这一倡议不应当仅仅局限于为双边项目牵线搭桥,而应推动可持续的地区和多边政策框架的建立。

“一带一路”倡议将会让中国及其伙伴国互利共赢,这一点确凿无疑。不过,由于地域、发展状态、生产能力和交通流量的不同,各个走廊地带的经济、社会、环境成本和收益也不尽相同。

研究表明,在“一带一路”倡议框架下,如若伙伴国家降低跨境交易成本和进口关税,其所在的走廊地带将会享受到更高的经济收益。比如,假设跨境交易成本和进口关税降低30%,中国的GDP将会增长1.8个百分点,其他参与成员国的GDP则会增长5.3%至16.9%不等。而在运作效率不高的贸易机制和边境管理体制内,提升国家基础设施质量固然也会带来出口增长,但效果有限。我们的分析数据显示,贸易手续简化度、交通基础设施质量以及信息和通信技术水平每提升1个百分点,分别会带来1.5%、0.7%和1.4%的出口额增长。在那些贸易协议业已存在的走廊地带,其享有的收益会更高。

参与“一带一路”倡议的国家中有2/3面临能源短缺的困境,因此,该倡议需要推动实现各分区域之间能源互联互通倡议规划的互补。未来,搭建输电网络,推动建立智能、绿色、综合的电力和天然气市场,建设跨国石油和天然气管道将油气资源丰富的中亚地区与南亚、东亚连接起来,这些领域都大有可为。同时,利用中国国家电网公司和全球能源互联网发展合作组织提出的倡议推动全球能源互联互接,将有助于增强该地区的能源安全、优化可持续能源的获取渠道。

此外,发展信息和通信技术是践行“一带一路”倡议的基础,因为技术能够产生跨行业协同效应,有利于提升各成员国的信息和通信基础设施的软硬件质量,进而促进运输交付、降低交易成本、提升管理效率。

同时需要注意的是,虽然“一带一路”倡议会给某些走廊地带带来显著的社会效益,但也需要采取更多包容性措施来应对社会风险。比如,打造新的多国走廊地带让偏远地区融入到“一带一路”倡议中来,将有助于推动农村工业化、缩小城乡差距。

总之,“一带一路”倡议的雄心和规模堪称前无古人,也将面临众多复杂挑战。这一倡议将提供非凡的机遇,让亚洲走上一条均衡的、可持续的发展路径。

(本文作者为联合国副秘书长兼亚洲及太平洋经济社会委员会执行干事编译:谌融)

责任编辑:高宗影 CN060
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