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台湾“大选”封关民调:民进党领先国民党20%

2016-01-05 08:24:13   观察者网

9家封关民调:8家蔡领先朱20% 国民党民调2人差8%

截至4日晚,已公布的“总统”封关民调共有9家,蔡英文均领先朱立伦20%以上;仅国民党独树一格,两人只差8%。(记者曾韦祯制表)

据台媒报道,明天(5日)是选前公布民调的最后一日,包括国民党中央、壹电视、三立纷纷抢在今日(4日)公布封关民调;截至今晚,已公布的封关民调共有9家,民进党“总统”候选人蔡英文均领先国民党“总统”候选人朱立伦20%以上;仅国民党独树一格,两人只差8%。

依“总统副总统”选举罢免法规定,选前10日不得公布民调,明日是公布、引用民调的最后一日。除了昨天的国民党中央、壹电视、三立以外,两岸政策协会、“新台湾国策智库”、台湾智库、台湾指标民调、TVBS也陆续在去年底起公布封关民调。

9家封关民调:8家蔡领先朱20% 国民党民调2人差8%1

蔡英文与朱立伦

综观各家民调结果,除了“新台湾国策智库”与国民党中央,蔡、朱两人的差距具皆在20%到30%之间,亲民党“总统”候选人宋楚瑜的支持度也都能突破10%。

蔡英文在“新台湾国策智库”民调的支持度达到51.1%,是唯一过半者,与朱立伦的差距拉大为34%。而国民党所发布的蔡的支持度为39.3%,朱获31.2%,两人仅差8%,不但迥异于各家民调,也是朱唯一突破1/4者。

各家民调统计方法:

两岸政策协会委托决策民调于12月27日至28日进行抽样,有效样本1210份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负2.82%。

台湾智库民调委托趋势民调于12月27日至28日进行抽样,有效样本1085份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负3%。

“新台湾国策智库”委托趋势民调于12月25日至26日进行抽样,有效样本1069份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负3%。

台湾指标民调于12月27日至29日进行进行抽样,有效样本1002份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负3.1%。

TVBS于1月2日进行抽样,有效样本978份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负3.1%。

苹果日报委托世新民调中心于1月1日至2日进行抽样,有效样本1069份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负3%。

国民党委托全国意向于1月2日进行抽样,有效样本876份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负3.31%。

壹电视于1月2日至3日进行抽样,有效样本1076份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负2.99%。

三立委托趋势民调于1月2日至3日进行抽样,有效样本800份,在95%信心水平下,抽样误差正负3.5%。

责任编辑:张晓伟 CN042
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