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台湾第二场电视辩论后民调 朱立伦赢蔡英文14%

2016-01-03 19:39:06   观察者网

昨天(2日),台湾最后一场地区领导人竞选电视辩论落下帷幕。三党参选人在选前再无同台公开辩论的机会,只得靠扫街拜票和曝光抹黑走完最后一里路。

Yahoo奇摩最新网络民调显示,自昨日下午2点至发稿,针对三位“总统”候选人在电视辩论中的表现,45%的网友认同国民党参选人朱立伦的表现,与之相比,只有31%的网友青睐民进党参选人蔡英文,足足差了14个百分点。同时,24%的网友认为亲民党参选人宋楚瑜的表现最出色。

至于本次电视辩论对选民投票倾向的影响,原想投给朱立伦、仍投朱立伦的网友占到30%,原想投给蔡英文、仍投蔡英文的网友为25%,差出5个百分点。10%的网友原想投给蔡英文,但看过二轮电视辩论后,改投朱立伦;与之相对,6%的网友原想投给朱立伦,但决定转投蔡英文。

值得注意的是,Yahoo奇摩网络民调,没有显示投票者是否为选民,也没有显示网民来自何处。

目前,该民调还在进行中,网友仍可投票。

除了Yahoo奇摩网络民调,TVBS民意调查中心在辩论会后也立即公布电话民调。民调结果显示,26%收看电视辩论的民众认为宋楚瑜的表现最好,认为朱立伦表现比较好的比例为22%,同时也有22%认为蔡英文表现最佳,另外有30%表示难以评断。

相较于第一场电视辩论后进行的调查,选民的投票意愿由80上升至85%,不会去投票的比例为13%,另外3%尚未决定是否会投票。

英仁配支持度为44%,较第一次辩论会后调查回升4个百分点;而朱玄配则维持在24%,双方差距再度扩大至20个百分点。同时,宋莹配支持度持续上升1个百分点至15%。此外,仍有18%民众未决定投票对象。

本次调查进行进行时间为1月2日下午16:15至20:00,共接触1059位20岁以上台湾地区民众,其中拒访为81位,拒访率为7.6%,最后成功访问有效样本978位,在95%的信心水平下,抽样误差为±3.1个百分点。抽样方法采用电话号码后四码随机抽样,人员电话访问,所有资料并依母体性别、年龄、地区等变项进行统计加权处理。

2015年12月27日首场“总统”候选人电视辩论结束,Yahoo奇摩随即展开网络民调。经过7天的投票,最终结果显示,朱立伦在辩论会的表现获得39%网友的认同,微幅领先蔡英文33%,而宋楚瑜获得27%的网友支持。

另外一项议题:看了“总统”候选人辩论,有改变你的投票意向吗?29%的网友原属意蔡英文仍会投给蔡英文,坚持不变支持朱立伦的为27%。

而在改变投票意向的人群中,10%的人原本想投给蔡英文,现在改投了朱立伦,6%的朱立伦支持者想改投蔡英文。

2015年岁末,台湾指标民调公布选前封关民调(投票前十日起,民调机构不得公布民意调查,台湾指针民调每月分为上下两期公布调查结果,因此本次民调为选前最后结果报告——观察者网注),40.1%投英仁配、17.5%朱玄配、16.8%宋莹配,10.6%不投或废票,15.1%未表态。

责任编辑:赵逸 CN039
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