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媒体:讲真,留给台湾的“朋友”不多了

2016-12-22 08:59:39   海外网

今天一大早,非洲的圣多美和普林西比(简称“圣普”)宣布与台湾“断交”。至此,台湾的“邦交国”只剩下了21个。

Interesting。

这件事,不能仅从台湾“外交”的这个角度看,而是应该放在一个更大的背景中——中美博弈里看,才能看得更清楚。我们和岛叔、台湾问题专家东鲁虬髯客聊了聊这件事。

1、侠客岛:圣普总面积1001平方公里,人口19万,不过是非洲的一个小小的岛国,1975年才从葡萄牙的殖民中独立出来。怎么看两岸对这件事的反应?

东鲁虬髯客:从台湾媒体的反应看,说“炸锅”应该完全不为过。今天上午,台湾外务事务负责人李大维说,圣普与台湾“断交”,是“在对岸挑唆下”、“狮子大开口”的一种表现。要价多少呢?2亿美元。按照他的说法,圣普已经“发现我们没有能力,以我们的援助规模反正他的国家也活不下去”。毕竟,台外事部门预算一整年度也只有7亿美元。不过,李大维还不忘补上一句,这是“个案”,不会引起骨牌效应。

骨牌不骨牌,现实总是骨感。遥想李登辉当年,大搞“金钱外交”,依靠台湾前期经济发展累积下的资本挥金如土,巅峰时刻曾将“邦交国”数量扩大到31个。但是,用钱砸出来的关系怎么可能稳固,台当局不过是在痴心妄想。31个“邦交国”到了马时代,也就剩下了23个。

今天华春莹的表态非常耐人寻味:“中方对此表示赞赏,欢迎圣普回到一个中国原则的正确轨道上来。”相比于咱们这边的毫不意外和落落大方,对岸则是当局遮遮掩掩、舆论鸡飞狗跳。今日下午,蔡英文参加民进党中常会时被问到此事时一言不发,不作任何回应。

真正应该注意的,是时间点。说起来,圣普对台湾的援助规模早有不满,但却在“川蔡通话”、特朗普挑衅一个中国政策这个时间点之后,宣布与台“断交”。2013年,冈比亚与台湾的“断交”;但直到蔡英文赢得总统选举后,冈比亚才在今年3月份与我国建交。

之所以这么重视时间点的选择,是因为它可以关涉到更大的背景。

2、侠客岛:算一算的话,台湾仅存的“邦交国”,总人口加起来也就7000多万,面积总共140多万平方公里。“断交”对于台湾意味着什么?

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