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经济新常态下,二线城市房价缘何大涨

2017-09-15 14:42:43   新华网

即便房价下降,或涨得不快,只要经济增速没那么高,买房就不是一件容易的事。因为降低了的经济增速意味着资本积累的速度下降,也就意味着资本的易得程度比以前下降。住宅作为一种普适的资本品,也变得更难得。

据媒体报道,这半年来,杭州、武汉、成都等二线城市房价持续上涨,一些三线、四线城市,乃至很多县城,房价都在涨。而北京、深圳等一线城市房价却略有下跌。

为何一线城市房价下跌,而二线城市房价却在上涨?是否像一些专家说的,住房购买力从一线城市挤压到了二线城市?

货币宽松不止,房价很难下跌

就一线城市来说,房价下跌是因为诸多严厉的调控抑制了楼市的流动性、增加了交易成本。不算交易成本,房价是明显下跌的,但如果算上交易成本,购房总成本未必就是下跌的。不过,在房价统计里,交易成本是不会被统计进去的。

二线城市的抑制性政策相对不那么严厉。也许一线城市的确有一部分住房购买力转移到了二线城市,但这并不能完全解释二线城市的房价上涨。因为,连县城房价都在上涨,这不是购买力转移就能够解释得了的。

最近一段时间,有关“新周期”的争论很热烈。宏观分析师任泽平提出了“新周期”的说法,认为一轮不同于以往的周期开始了,这轮周期以“去产能”为特征。很多学者不同意他的观点,但即便不同意他的观点的学者中,也有不少人认为新一轮的周期确实开始了,但并非“去产能”的所谓“新周期”,而仍然是货币周期。

再看人民币这一段时间比较快速的升值之后(汇率变化的重要原因是美元自身走软),不少研究者借机呼吁降准、放宽货币,可见一有机会,宽松货币的呼声就会抬头。

从这些舆论环境来看,货币从紧只是权宜之计,比如,为了维持人民币汇率而收紧货币,宽松货币的呼声则是长期的。如此,就可以理解,为何二线城市房价大涨。很简单,宽松货币的预期总是挥之不去。

影响房价的因素除了调控、货币、土地供给等,还有一个极为重要的因素,长期为大家所忽略,那就是经济进入6%的增长时代。即便现在学者热衷讨论新一轮的周期开始了,但是也不会有人敢大胆想象经济增速可以到8%、9%等。这意味着什么?

经济增速没那么高,买房就不是易事

降低了的经济增速意味着资本积累的速度下降,也就意味着资本的易得程度比以前下降。住宅作为一种普适的资本品,也变得更难得。简单地说,就是全社会买房整体上变得更难了。

一方面是宽松货币预期挥之不去,另一方面是资本积累速度下降,这两方面因素叠加,使得越早利用杠杆买房的人获利越大,这已经被过去十多年的历史经验所验证。所以,人们有机会当然就抢着买房,二线城市乃至县城房价上涨也就成了很自然的事。

这不是说房价就不会下降。但是,即便房价下降,或涨得不快,只要经济增速没那么高,买房就不是一件容易的事。比如,美国房价相对其发达程度来说并不算高,但由于美国经济整体增速较低,美国青年拥有自住房的程度还不如中国青年。

所以,要想让人们买房整体上变得更容易,一个重要的前提条件就是经济重回高增速。除此之外的其他各种办法,比如多建限价房、鼓励租房等等,都只能解决一部分人的问题,无法整体上降低大家的买房难度。除了部分享受到政策优惠的幸运儿,更多的普通人只能去适应中等经济增速的时代,调整自己的投资习惯、生活习惯等。(邓新华)

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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