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中国8个一线城市?专家:人为划定一线城市并不科学

2017-09-13 08:19:26   大众网

(原标题:中国至少需8个一线城市?专家:这是要更多城市涨房价)

文章导读:如果真有必要划分出中国底需要多少个一线城市、二线城市,就让市场去决定。现在人为地去规划几个一线城市,本身并不科学。“新一线城市”话题再起波澜。

近日,民生证券副总裁、民生金融智库首席经济学家管清友在一个论坛上发言称,中国至少需要8个一线城市。除了北京、上海、广州、深圳外,天津、杭州、成都、武汉、南京、重庆、西安、苏州、合肥等9个城市有望成为“新一线城市”。

这个说法在学界引起了较大争议。争议的焦点在于:中国真的需要这么多的一线城市吗?用“一线城市”或者“新一线城市”的表述是否恰当?国内权威的城市研究又是什么?

“一线城市”和“新一线城市”提法并不科学

管清友提出9个城市有望成为“新一线城市”并非无的放矢。他认为,和发达经济体相比,中国一线城市人口占比偏低,有增加第一层级城市数量和规模的内在需求。“我们统计了一下,中国一线城市人口占全国总人口只有约5%。”

管清友表示,北上广深等第一层级城市各自的人口规模约2000万。如果增加到8个,第一层级城市承载人口1.6亿。如果每个层级1.6亿,用6个层级可以承载约9.6亿人口,可以明显提高中国的城镇化率。

但是,通过“增加一线城市数量”来提高城镇化率,有的区域经济学家并不认同。

国家发改委国土开发与地区经济研究所原所长肖金成就表示反对。他告诉《中国经济周刊》记者:“国内常被提及的所谓一线、二线、三线、四线城市的概念最早起源于房地产市场,此后说北上广深是一线城市,也是基于房价高。现在再提出至少还需要4个一线城市,难道是希望更多城市的房价再提升吗?一线城市是房地产领域的说法,划分方法并不科学。例如,温州房价曾经很高,按此划分温州也应该划为一线城市;但后来温州房价腰斩,你说温州是一线城市吗?”

中国人民大学区域与城市经济研究所所长孙久文也不赞成这种提法。他告诉《中国经济周刊》记者,一线、二线、三线、四线城市划分是一种非学术范畴的经济概念,最早确实是由从事房地产的人士提出来的,划分没有固定的标准,既可按行政级别划分,也可按城市规模、人口数量划分,还可按经济发展水平和GDP总量等标准划分。“这个概念跟中国经济发展、跟区域经济发展没有直接的关系。如果真有必要划分出中国到底需要多少个一线城市、二线城市,就让市场去决定。现在人为地去规划几个一线城市,本身并不科学。”

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