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印度“中国不会动手”的误判非常危险

2017-08-25 14:12:29   环球时报

印度军队越过锡金段中印边界侵入中国领土已经近70天了,中印对峙至今没有形成和平结束的决定性转机。印度军队的表现显示出它们想继续在中国土地上赖下去,迫使中国接受印方的条件。

印方显然对中方的实力和决心都产生了严重误判,认定无论其军队对中国土地的入侵持续多久,中国都只会寻求外交解决,而决不会对印采取军事行动。从印度的官员到知识精英,很多人认为中国的警告只是“口头恫吓”,印主流媒体8月初引述印安全部门官员的话称,中国不会冒险战争,“哪怕一个小规模的军事行动都不会有”,这种看法在印度很有代表性。

新德里形成这种误判,最大的原因是中国已经近30年没有打仗。任何国家和平久了,都可能有一定程度“安于和平”的惯性,所以印度有关决策者们低估中国人“敢战”的意志,如果只是一种印象,也不奇怪。

但一种印象怎能用来支持如此重大的决策。中国不想与印度开战,想让和平持续得更久些,这是普遍的人之常情。中国希望与印度保持友好的、至少正常的国家关系,也是再正常不过的善良愿望。但每一个国家处在极端状态下都会选择战争的,这种极端状态就是当它不再有第二个选择、战争再糟糕它也只能义无反顾去承受的时候。

印度现在正以它的无理、骄横将中国逼向上述极端状态。印军在未发出警示的情况下断然侵入中国领土,并为自己撤军提出有损中国主权和国家尊严的条件。为促使印军和平撤走,解放军迟迟没有采取军事行动。但当中国确认印度不会和平撤军的时候,中国除了使用军事手段结束这场对峙,还能有别的选择吗?

印度政府和军队必须清楚它们在做什么样的冒险。它们做的是国际规则全面亮红灯的冒险,也是完全超出了印度能力的冒险。由于它们严重低估了局势的危险,高估了自己通过玩弄联美联日等地缘政治游戏向中国施压、从而把控全局的能力,它们正在犯下致命的错误。

很多印度官员好像不知道,洞朗对峙对印度意味的现实危险远远大于对中国意味的战略风险。他们没有珍惜中方克制所给印度留的脸面和台阶,却狂妄地以为中国在给自己找台阶。

中国文化有后发制人的战略传统,强大一方在摩擦初期采取克制态度,常常被认为是必要的。克制是对反击的道义铺垫,也是对战之必胜开展军事和心理准备的必要一环。强者克制以及对和平表达尊重决非怯懦,克制之后的爆发更会是雷霆万钧的。

我们想告诉莫迪政府,你们对形势的评估完全错了,而且你们的误判非常危险。你们竟会认为印度阻止中国在“敏感地区”修路的决心,能够压倒中国从本国土地上赶走入侵者的决心。你们也好像不知道,中国全社会要求恢复被入侵者所占土地的强大要求,是中国的执政者必须执行的,也是你们印度和任何国际力量都阻挡不了的。

解放军一旦反击,不可能是“对等反击”,其所产生的政治和经济后果将是印度不可承受的。印度一些人所做的各种有利于印方的军事分析都将被证明是玩笑。

中印边界会不会在时隔几十年之后重新响起枪炮声,印度是否重蹈1962年覆辙,取决于新德里是否觉醒。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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