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资金蓄势待发 业绩+估值仍是焦点

2017-10-13 07:42:53   

昨日,两市虽仍窄幅收跌,但总体上出现了企稳回升的态势。一方面,说明了近期的震荡的走势仍未出现改变,场内外资金在当前点位上的分歧“显而易见”,谨慎气氛似乎又有所抬头。另一方面,由于基本面情况依然向好,当前的市场韧性仍然较强。虽然市场并未脱离震荡区间但已出现了蓄势向上的迹象。在此背景下,场外资金看多做多的意愿又有所上升。

站在当下热点切换较快的市况中,后市板块间如何配置越来越被市场所关注,而对标的业绩和估值的考察无疑是当下市场的主要焦点。据统计,2010年以来每年的4月以及四季度的10、12月低估值跑赢高估值概率较高。一方面,从稳健防御角度,绝对估值低且估值盈利匹配的板块值得重点关注。分析人士指出,虽然当前扰动因素仍然较多,但武断地做出趋势性的解读其实并不合理,而越来越多迹象的出现也表明A股后期走势并不悲观。

盘面韧性较强

昨日,两市虽然窄幅收跌,但尾盘指数的走强仍说明当前盘面的韧性依然较强。截至收盘时,沪指下跌0.06%,报3386.10点,成交2016.68亿元;深成指下跌0.05%,报11307.32点,成交2798.69亿元。值得注意的是,昨日两市虽出现窄幅回调,但仍处于反弹以来的高位,沪指据3400点关口仅一步之遥。

从实际交易的情况来看,节后以来市场的参与热情虽出现增强,但仍未彻底改变此前市场已形成的节奏。不仅盘面震荡的走势仍在延续,热点的切换也依然是令人“琢磨不透”。昨日,无论从行业方面还是概念方面的情况来看,都呈现出了“跌多涨少”的局面。概念板块方面,仅有航母、5G、宽带提速等6个概念的涨幅超1%。182个概念中出现下跌的达到133个。而行业方面,截至收盘,28个申万一级行业中实现上涨的也仅有9个,其中国防军工行业的涨幅居首,全天涨幅为1.65%,包括国防军工在内,涨幅超过1%的行业还有钢铁和家用电器。而反观下跌的行业中,近期表现良好的食品饮料等行业赫然在列,本周表现强势的医药生物行业虽然微涨,但势头也已大不如前。这一现象也依然说明了此前旧有的盘面特征并未发生根本性的改变,市场热点依然不连续。此外,从昨日两市成交出现缩量的情况来看,市场的谨慎情绪也依然浓重。

一方面,从主力资金方面的情况来看,昨日主力资金净流出的态势仍在延续,但尾盘主力资金净流入的现象却仍显露出一定的积极迹象。另一方面,可喜的是两融余额方面近日来出现的积极变化。首先是截至10月11日,两融余额依然延续回升势头,报9946.47亿元,距前期两融余额高点差额已进一步缩小。从一个侧面说明了节后场外资金参与意愿仍在改善,看多做多的意愿有所增强。分析人士表示,从上述两组数据传达出的信息中,一方面反映出资金在市场的连续震荡及“赚钱效应”弱化的氛围中仍在寻求一致,震荡仍然在所难免。另一方面,由于场外杠杆资金参与意愿的加强,场内离场资金的缺口也一定程度上得以弥补,后市行情仍值得期待。

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