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市场情绪谨慎乐观 机构布局十月行情

2017-09-28 08:07:51   

国庆长假临近,上周50ETF期权持仓量突破200万手,创历史新高,波动率降至近三个多月低位。分析人士认为,投资者参与期权市场整体力度有所加大,对行情平稳向上的信心较强。

期权持仓创新高

近期,股票期权持仓量迭创新高。从18日开始,50ETF期权持仓量连续5个交易日站上200万张,20日达到202.21万张的历史高位。本周前两个交易日,期权持仓量都维持在199万张以上。

方正中期期货研究员彭博表示,短期来看,A股震荡走高及对后市平稳向上的预期导致认购期权持仓大幅攀升。从成交上看,认购期权大于认沽期权,反映市场对后市较乐观。

“近一周,50ETF期权日持仓量基本维持在200万张左右,创历史新高,持仓增加主要来自于认购期权。”长江期货期权业务部副总经理李富也表示,根据历史统计,尽管国庆节前一两周时间内A股涨跌无明显规律,但节后一周上证综指实现上涨概率很大,所以临近国庆,认购期权持仓增加可能反映资金在布局节后上涨行情。

数据显示,截至26日收盘,50ETF认购期权持仓量103.5万张,成交量51.9万张;认沽期权持仓量92.81万张,成交量更是只有18.96万张。

银河期货檀君君表示,50ETF净值近期已创下阶段新高。投资者交投参与程度稳步提升。“持仓达到历史新高,一方面体现出投资者参与期权市场整体力度在增强;另一方面显示出投资者对行情延续性有较强信心,从日内高频投机交易转向期权价值投资。”

“八仙过海”玩转期权

股票期权、股指期货等衍生品,其交易和变化基础是A股市场。业内人士说,期权火热表明A股市场资金在积极寻找和尝试新的对冲方式。“‘双节’将至,投资者使用期权对现货头寸进行保护的对冲需求旺盛。”檀君君说。

波动率是投资者玩转期权的关键性指标。波动率指数是跟踪市场波动性的指数,一般通过标的期权的隐含波动率计算得来。该指数反映出投资者愿意付出多少成本对冲投资风险。近期,中国波指(iVX)有所回落,这在一定程度上表明节前避险情绪不明显。上海证券交易数据显示,9月27日,中国波指只有12.31%,较9月1日的14.5%明显回落,创下6月2日以来最低。

一位业内人士表示,从波动率看,资金预期国庆节前后市场将平稳甚至向上,短期避险情绪不明显。“当前市场的主流是做卖出认购期权或卖出跨市套利策略,主要原因是持续窄幅震荡导致波动率大幅下降,时间价值消逝较快,认购及认沽期权价值下跌快速。如操作得当,会有相当稳健的收益。”

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