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我国总杠杆率稳中趋降 下一步主攻国企降杠杆

2017-09-26 07:17:53   中国经济网

每经记者 冯彪 每经编辑 陈星

在债转股、兼并重组等一系列举措并举之下,当前我国降低杠杆率工作已取得积极进展。

9月25日,国家发改委刊文称,我国总杠杆率上升速度明显放缓,正趋于稳定。另外,我国企业杠杆率、信贷/GDP缺口、微观杠杆率均已开始下降,实体经济效益快速改善。下一步,将把国有企业降杠杆率作为主攻方向,把僵尸企业出清作为降杠杆的重要途径,坚决去除无效杠杆。同时,推动市场化债转股进一步发挥综合性作用,进一步支持企业兼并重组。

我国总体杠杆率为257.8%

国家发改委刊文从多个方面总结了当前我国降杠杆工作取得的成效。

一是我国总杠杆率上升速度明显放缓,正趋于稳定。国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据显示,截至2017年一季度末,我国总体杠杆率为257.8%,同比增幅较上季度末下降4.7个百分点,连续4个季度保持下降趋势;环比增幅较上季度末下降0.8个百分点,连续5个季度保持下降趋势。二是我国企业杠杆率已开始下降。根据BIS 最新数据,2017年一季度末我国非金融企业杠杆率为165.3%,连续3个季度环比下降或持平,非金融企业杠杆率下降趋势进一步确立。三是我国信贷/GDP缺口保持下降。截至2017年一季度末,我国信贷/GDP缺口22.1%,较2016年末降低2.4个百分点,已连续4个季度下降,显示我国潜在债务风险正趋于减轻。

另外,降杠杆成效还体现在微观杠杆率呈下降趋势和实体经济效益快速改善方面。截至今年7月末,我国规模以上工业企业资产负债率55.8%,同比下降0.7个百分点。规模以上工业企业主营业务收入利润率提高到6%以上,利润增速高达20%,企业发展信心和动力增强。

不过,在我国降低杠杆率总体成效明显的同时,不同行业、企业杠杆率差异所体现出的结构性问题仍不能忽视。

中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长赵锡军对《每日经济新闻》记者表示:“降杠杆总体成效不错,接下来最重要的是精细化地区分杠杆,不合理的、投机性的杠杆一定要去掉,过高的杠杆要降低,要区别对待实体经济、政府、居民、金融机构等不同部门的杠杆水平,期限、币种等结构不合理的杠杆也要调整。”

东吴证券研报指出,2016年,我国实体经济部门杠杆率251.18%,低于同期发达国家水平,目前仍处安全地带。但分部门看,国有企业与私营企业出现两极分化。

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