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资金市场监测:利率全线上行
2017-09-25 09:46:53 中国经济网
由于节前压力显现,9月22日当周,Shibor(上海银行间同业拆放利率)呈现全线上涨的态势。除了3月期利率报收4.3611%,较前一周下降0.36个基点之外,隔夜、1周、2周、1月、6月、9月和1年期Shibor分别报收于2.7560%、2.8580%、3.7359%、3.9908%、4.39%、4.399%和4.4028%,较9月15日分别上升6.02、2.6、4.41、3.98、0.3、0.1、0.13个基点,短期利率涨幅较大,中长期利率涨幅较小。
表为上海银行间同业拆放利率(单位:%)
上周,央行回笼流动性的压力不大,仅有1135亿元的中期借贷便利(MLF)和2100亿元的逆回购到期。但是,央行共进行了总额达到6600亿元的逆回购,当周央行向市场净投放资金3365亿元。但是,随着月底中秋和国庆假期的临近,市场资金需求持续上升,加之银行面临季末MPA考核,即使今年的资金紧缺情况不如往年,市场的利率水平仍然处于持续上升的局面。除此之外,受美国缩表的影响,人民币近期持续贬值,这可能引发外资的大量流出,从而造成国内流动性下降。而债市新发债券量较大以及股市的持续走强也增加了市场对资金的需求。因此,基于上述考虑,季末最后一周利率延续涨势的概率较大。
不过好的一面是,随着季末资金需求上升期的到来,央行近期的公开市场业务力度明显上升,这说明央行维持目前利率稳定的意愿较强。在这种情况下,本周央行可能延续力度较大的公开市场业务操作,因此本周利率涨幅或有限,市场不会出现资金不足的风险。
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