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震荡回踩不改稳中渐进

2017-09-18 07:41:40   中国经济网

上周市场以震荡调整为主,沪指周四再度摸高3391点后连跌2日收出周线小阴。随着沪指回踩20日均线叠加下方3331-3336点缺口吸引力,市场多空双方分歧日渐加大,高位周期股调整低位地产大涨对冲了部分调整压力,白酒等消费类股也凸显弱势防御价值。从长线看股指整体上升趋势并未逆转,多头收回拳头,适当整固蓄力、夯实基础更有利于化解上行压力,使行情深入和持久。在局部热点+结构性行情下标的股选择是否恰当要重于指数的研判,市场轮动主线或仍以业绩成长+政策主题双轮驱动为主。操作上控仓位戒急戒躁,不因震荡影响操作心态,跟随资金流向+热点变化,积极把握个股结构性机会。

前期大涨的资源类周期股大幅放量回落,作为供给侧改革受益端的钢铁、煤炭等年内热点涨势惊人,其交替式上涨对指数贡献权重大,但一旦获利盘涌出股价集体大跌亦对指数冲击不小;且今年权重类股上涨也大多以轮动为主,大资金在几个主线中腾挪切换,总体上的大涨小回使指数重心抬高震荡上行;短线权重整体均表现不佳使得指数出现阶段性调整,消化获利盘的同时也是在等待新增资金入场。周期资源、次新、新能源汽车产业链等高涨幅股短期获利回吐压力不小,但地产等前期滞涨品种表现积极,显示资金在安全边际更高的板块寻找补涨套利机会与新的投资方向。强监管+防风险的股市政策下炒新、炒差、炒小等投机行炒作难以持续,缺乏成长性的公司被边缘化仍是大势所趋。系统性牛市虽无,行业龙头+业绩成长等标杆型公司易涨难跌,趋势性局部牛市难以逆转。

市场生态体系重塑下稳中渐进、慢牛盘升主基调并未改变。以养老+险资等新增资金入市PK各色套现盘的博弈拉锯仍是进行时,纠错式去杠杆后两融余额逼近万亿大关,市场风险偏好度得到较大修复,但在体量增肥后的存量博弈市场只能选择热点轮涨+结构行情,大分化下多数边缘化股难享指数上涨红利。但在当前时间窗口期市场恐慌情绪整体可控,风险主要集中于涨高类个股的卖压,虽对股指构成扰动但下跌空间应有限。

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