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美联储缩表预期升温 资金提前布局新兴市场

2017-09-18 10:06:43   新华网

美联储将于9月19日至20日召开议息会议,外界普遍将此次会议视作美联储传递缩表进程的重要指引。在此关键时刻,美国最新通胀以及就业数据如期而至。异常强劲的数据增强了联储缩表信心,却未能激起股市的兴奋。目前,以瑞银为代表的华尔街巨头纷纷抛出美股估值泡沫论。甚至有预言称,一旦泡沫破裂,市场将大幅回调。在此背景下,聪明的资本已经提前布局亚洲等新兴市场,该地区不但对冲基金规模连续四季度创新高,外汇储备同样节节攀升。

  市场等待缩表指引

在美联储议息会议前,市场等来了一份最重要的经济数据。14日晚间,美国公布8月份核心通胀数据,8月核心CPI同比涨1.7%,预期涨1.6%,前值涨1.7%,距美联储2%的通胀目标更进了一步,5个月来首次好于预期。数据公布后,CME美联储观察数据显示,联邦基金利率期货表明美联储12月加息概率高于50%,为今年7月份来首次突破50%。荷兰国际集团分析称,尽管美国核心通胀数据仍低于2%目标水平,但能源成本逐步提升将助推美国通胀上涨,因此美联储极有可能在9月宣布缩表,12月再度启动加息。

与此同时,作为另一项美联储政策目标的就业指标同样强劲。周四晚间同时公布的截至9月9日当周初请失业金人数为增加28.4万人,前值为增加29.8万人,预测值为增加30万人。美国当周初请失业金数据已经连续132周低于30万人关口,创下1970年以来最长周期。

通常来说,这两份数据是研判美联储缩表的重要线索。美联储官员近期的讲话也表示,通胀率是直接关系缩表进程的关键指标。Caxton外汇分析师罗素·奥利弗称:“美国通胀数据对市场是一个很大的风险。考虑到市场做空美元的头寸,如果通胀数据好于预期,美元可能会跳升并打压金价。”

在今年6月的议息会议上,美联储已经透露了关于缩表的想法。当时,美联储表示,缩表将以减少到期本金再投资的方式进行,起初每月缩减60亿美元国债、40亿美元抵押支持债券。之后每季度增加一次,直到达到每月缩减300亿美元国债、200亿美元抵押支持债券为止。7月会议纪要显示,如果经济符合预期,美联储将尽快步入缩表进程。

  大佬纷纷抛出美股泡沫论

尽管双重利好如期而至,但周四的美股市场反应冷淡,目前从大型对冲基金到投行都不同程度地对美股表示谨慎。

美国知名基金经理约翰胡斯曼撰文称,美股估值过高,一旦泡沫破裂,预计将会从当前水平下跌60%。约翰·赫斯曼的推断是基于估值回归理论。据其分析,市场回报主要受三个因素驱动:基本面增长、现金收入和估值变化(即价格与基本面之比)。股价上涨从来不是凭空而来的。根据历史数据,自1960年来,标普500指数的年化总回报有10%来自指数成份股的营收增长,5.7%来自利润,3.0%来自股息收入,1.3%来自快速上升的股价营收比。但从现在来看,增长前景并不乐观,标普500指数的股票收益率只有2%。赫斯曼预计,在未来10年至12年,估值回归也会抹平利润增长、股息收入的整体贡献,导致标普500指数总体零回报或负回报,估计股市将下跌约60%。瑞银技术分析师团队也认为美股未来不容乐观,他们担心标普500指数可能是假突破。

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