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美元上冲概率大 日元延续弱势

2017-09-15 07:31:53   中国经济网

尽管本周地缘政治事件对金融市场的影响显著,但眼下市场的焦点已经转移至周五即将公布的美国零售销售数据,数据的好坏料将影响美联储下次加息的时机,美元因此持续震荡。

朝鲜半岛局势已经影响了非美货币整体的价格,但这些地缘政治事件的影响时间往往是相当有限的,当事情冷静下来的时候,市场很快转向。美元的疲软与朝鲜半岛的紧张局势驱动避险货币上涨,但美元贬值将会放缓。尽管飓风“艾尔玛”造成的损失远低于此前的“哈维”,但市场担心二次灾难将严重影响美国的经济增长。此外,联合国一致通过对朝鲜实施新的制裁,市场担心这可能会引发朝鲜对美国的报复性行为。目前来看,在美国财政刺激政策明朗化之前,美元的反弹应该只是暂时的,并不是趋势性的逆转。

美联储下一次例行会议将于9月19日至20日召开。眼下市场的焦点已经转移至美国零售销售数据,因数据会影响美联储下次加息时机。本周五晚间,这一备受关注的数据即将出炉。由于美联储强调利率决定将取决于经济数据,而消费支出占美国经济产出的70%左右,美国零售销售数据经常在金融市场掀起“惊涛骇浪”,因此被称为“恐怖数据”。调查表明,美国8月零售销售月率料上升0.1%,上月为增长0.6%;8月核心零售销售月率料增长0.5%,升幅与上月相同。美国8月零售销售可能遭到了飓风“哈维”的严重冲击,因为月末的营业日减少,汽车销售料急剧下滑,这将拖累整体的零售销售数据。

美元指数调整过后继续强势上攻。从日线图上看,91.85的大级别低点支撑被跌破,但目前价格重新回到此位置上方,即将向93.30的道氏高点发起挑战。4小时图均线系统的压制位被顺利升破,多头动能再度爆发。短线的主趋势重新转为向上,美元指数距离上述阻力仍有一定空间,预计后市继续上冲的概率较大,目前以做空弱势非美货币为主思路。

日本二季度经济增幅远远不及初值亮丽,备受期待的内需提速变得希望渺茫,日元因此走势偏弱。之前计算GDP修正值所用到的数据已经显示,日本二季度的资本支出较之前有所减速。虽然令人失望的数据可能削弱人们对政府经济政策和企业前景的信心,但市场仍预计日本经济将维持稳步复苏的势头。强劲的全球需求给日本出口带来支撑,就业市场趋紧也改善了薪资上涨的前景。

受在初值数据中估测资本支出、消费和库存的方式影响,日本GDP数据往往会被大幅修正。此次日本GDP增长年率下修幅度为2010年能够获得可比数据以来最大,而该数据下修的主要原因在于企业资本支出明显下调。日本企业资本支出季度环比增幅从2.4%的初值下修至0.5%,反映了公布GDP初值之后获得的数据的情况。近期发布的一系列经济指标显示,得益于稳健的出口和制造业产出,日本经济增长态势应会持续。而7月日本工业生产和消费者支出数据预示,日本三季度经济将会有所放缓。但更宏观地来看,日本经济将实现连续第七个季度的扩张。而尽管就业市场偏紧,但薪资增长和家庭支出仍缺乏活力,从而使日本央行面临维持大规模货币刺激措施的压力。

本周初公布的数据显示,日本7月制造业订单增长2.9%,这是得益于列车车厢订单的推动;服务业订单增长4.8%,其中电脑设备订单增幅最大。与此同时,数据显示日本7月核心机械订单较前月增加8.0%,几乎是路透调查增幅4.4%的2倍。日本7月核心机械订单增幅为2016年1月以来最高,并扭转了连续三个月的跌势,显示出资本投资出现令人鼓舞的增长迹象,而这是支撑经济可持续增长所需的要素。这些数据可能有助于缓解日本企业对资本支出的担忧,虽然这些企业坐拥大量现金,但对增加支出踌躇不前。如果企业支出持续复苏应能支持日本央行的观点,即民间部门带动增长的良性循环将在经济扎根。然而,尽管近期迹象显示民间消费反弹,但薪资和通胀仍牢守低位,这令日本央行承受维持大规模货币刺激的压力。

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