新闻 > 经济
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China

铁矿石 维持振荡格局

2017-09-18 09:21:43   中国经济网

潜在不利因素待释放

当前钢厂盈利持续向好,利润高企,开工持续高位,对于铁矿石需求特别是高品位矿石需求看涨。但是港口高库存依旧是一个利空因素,不排除后期采暖季到来会出现发酵。

钢厂扩产意愿较高

目前,螺纹钢即期利润率为41.9%,较上周增加2%。不过,上海热卷价格增幅较小,利润反而下降,热卷即期利润率为24.7%,较上周减少0.6%,已经连续3—4个月在5年最高位附近盘整。钢厂整体对于继续扩产的需求很高。

近期,虽然高炉开工率维持平稳,但是全国粗钢产量以及重点钢厂粗钢产量仍在高位。在高利润驱使下,虽然受政策因素影响,但是钢厂生产热情依旧不减,主要通过提高高品位矿利用率来实现这一增产目的。

目前,整体钢厂钢材库存、社会库存都处在历史低位,但是近期出现止跌回稳的迹象。全国钢厂厂内建材库存总量为301.7万吨,钢材社会库存为959.44万吨,虽然目前沪市线螺成交量有所下降,但是整体维持钢厂高产量生产并不成问题。

供暖季限产或影响销量

目前,铁矿石港口库存依然处在历史高位,虽然从6月底开始港口库存已经出现连续两个月下降,但是短期暂时无法支撑铁矿石快速上涨。同时,国内采暖季限产会对铁矿石整体需求量造成打压。钢厂持续维持高产以供金九银十消费旺季和采暖季囤货的可能性非常大,但是也存在透支后期需求的可能性。

目前国内大中型钢厂库存可用天数26天,相对中性。近期,在疏港量如此好的情况下依然有所回落。全国45个主要港口铁矿石日均疏港总量为299.6万吨,环比增加0.76万吨,创出近期新高,显示需求较好。同时也印证了钢厂生产囤货的推测。

我国北方六大港口上周铁矿石到港总量为1188.2万吨。从发货量来看,巴西铁矿石发货总量为735.6万吨,澳洲发往中国的铁矿石1334.3万吨。预计未来一周铁矿石到港量增幅适中。结合需求来看,近期铁矿石港口库存依然会延续下降走势。

操作策略以及风险因素分析

观察铁矿石近月价差,本轮铁矿石上涨是由现货带动。表明资金对于铁矿石后期的持续上涨有所迟疑,目前维持振荡走势的可能性较大。

操作上,建议做空1801合约,入场点位500—540元/吨,止损位540—560元/吨,目标位410—450元/吨。 由于黑色品种的波动性较大,仓位尽量放低,建议控制在20%以内。

关注存在的潜在风险:

一是交易所抑制过度投机。

二是采暖季环保限产。

图为铁矿石钢厂可用天数

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170918/31451682.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/12/05 12:36:39

Powered by China
China