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经济稳中向好,为诸多改革举措落实提供回旋空间

2017-09-16 10:31:43   央广网

 张德勇中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员

近日,国家统计局公布8月份国民经济运行情况。其中,一些主要经济指标的增速,如全国规模以上工业增加值、固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额等,都出现不同程度回落。尽管如此,从经济运行的整体表现看,国民经济继续保持了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。

经济运行保持在合理区间,是我们宏观调控的基本目标。这个合理区间,其下限是稳增长、保就业,上限是防通胀。只要经济运行在合理区间,既不冲出上限,又不滑出下限,就可以认为是经济运行保持在合理区间。

从增加值来看,8月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.0%;1-8月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.7%;值得一提的是,8月份,制造业采购经理指数为51.7%,比上月提高0.3个百分点,连续13个月处于景气区间,说明制造业总体保持稳中向好的发展态势,企业预期向好。

从就业来看,8月份,31个大城市的城镇调查失业率稳定在5%以下,比7月份略有回落;1-8月份,城镇新增就业974万人,同比增加26万人。这意味着,就业形势总体保持良好态势。

从物价来看,8月份,虽然工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比上涨6.3%,但居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨1.8%,说明目前物价水平总体涨势平稳。

由此判断,8月份经济运行继续保持在合理区间,从而为诸多改革举措的出台和落实提供更大的回旋空间。而且,在结构优化升级和新动能成长方面,继续取得积极进展。

一是“三去一降一补”深入推进。钢铁、煤炭和待售商品房去产能、去库存加快推进,企业资产负债率、生产成本继续下降,生态保护和环境治理业、公共设施管理业、水利管理业、农业投资等短板领域投资快速增长。

二是结构优化继续取得积极成效。工业领域高科技产业继续保持较快增长、消费升级类产品也保持较快增长,投资结构继续呈现优化趋势。

三是新动能成长取得新成效。高技术产业和装备制造业增加值增速分别比规模以上工业快6.9和5.6个百分点,新兴服务业、生产性服务业快速发展,1-7月份,规模以上战略性新兴服务业、生产性服务业营业收入同比分别增长16.8%和14.5%

四是经济增长质量继续得到提升。1-7月份,规模以上工业企业利润同比增长21.2%,比上年同期加快14.3个百分点;1-8月份,一般公共预算收入同比增长9.8%,比上半年继续有所加快。

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