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水泥价格将迎第二波上涨 近7亿大单抢筹13只个股

2017-09-15 07:21:51   中国经济网

受益于水泥价格上涨,近期水泥板块连续走强,9月12日以来截至昨日已连续3个交易日实现上涨,期间板块整体涨幅达到5.73%,仅昨日该板块就逆市大涨1.88%。

个股方面,三圣股份、华新水泥等昨日实现涨停,祁连山(4.24%)、万年青(4.19%)、宁夏建材(3.47%)、天山股份(3.36%)、海螺水泥(3.35%)等个股昨日涨幅也均超2%。

资金流向方面,昨日板块内共有13只个股呈现大单资金净流入,累计吸金6.68亿元。其中,华新水泥大单资金净流入居首,达到31469.26万元,三圣股份紧随其后,大单资金净流入为20140.97万元,而海螺水泥(5558.86万元)、上峰水泥(2917.72万元)、福建水泥(2366.37万元)、尖峰集团(1410.79万元)和万年青(1221.38万元)等个股大单资金净流入均超1000万元。

对于水泥价格走势及板块后市行情,中泰证券表示,自8月底以来截至9月上旬,随着下游市场步入需求旺季,全国水泥价格上涨遍地开花,华北、华东、中南和西南等地第一轮价格推涨幅度均在30元-50元/吨,水泥第二轮价格上涨部分地区已在酝酿中,预计各区域价格上涨幅度仍不低于30元/吨。从近期各区域报价情况看,水泥价格反弹幅度均较大,并且是全国大范围上涨,一改以往仅是个别地区上涨,若后期能延续目前的涨价幅度,四季度将会有多地水泥价格突破今年二季度高点。

而综合机构观点发现,当前水泥库存相对近年同期处于较低水平,随着各区域水泥价格陆续出现恢复性上涨,“金九银十”旺季到来后,将迎来全年的第二波大幅上涨。长期来看,在供给侧结构性改革不断推进以及国家环保形势愈发严格的大环境下,上市公司经营盈利能力增强,行业景气度有望进一步上升,值得关注。

安信证券表示,持续关注水泥旺季提价,低库存下企业提价意愿强烈、需求旺季回补以及错峰限产力度加大有望令涨价超预期。从两条线关注后市机会:一是短期旺季提价带来的价格弹性标的,二是中长期去产能和行业整合中有望受益的龙头企业,继续关注华新水泥、海螺水泥以及冀东水泥等。

中泰证券则表示,目前各地已经纷纷推出新一轮的错峰限产计划,水泥行业产量约束将持续增强,预计后期库存将持续回落,旺季涨价幅度将超过市场预期。市场充分重视水泥供给侧结构性改革的预期差,看好供给侧结构性改革加速推进对行业整体景气度带来的提升。

值得注意的是,受益水泥产品提价,水泥上市公司中报业绩普遍较好,三季度有望再超预期。《证券日报》市场研究中心根据同花顺数据统计发现,截至昨日,已有7家公司披露三季报业绩预告,其中,业绩预喜公司家数达到5家。具体来看,天山股份、华新水泥、塔牌集团、三圣股份等4家公司三季报净利润同比增幅有望翻番,分别为6138.52%、500%、130%、120%。此外,狮头股份有望实现三季报业绩扭亏为盈。

对此,东北证券表示,上半年水泥行业景气度较好,全行业营业收入累计同比增速为29.98%,归属母公司净利润同比增长57.89%,水泥价格的提升为行业带来了较大的业绩弹性。目前,供需关系向好带来价格提升,水泥相关企业营收、净利持续得到改善,行业景气度继续提升。

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