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8月份CPI与PPI涨幅有所扩大

2017-09-11 08:47:39   中国经济网

CPI同比涨幅较上月大幅上升,创近7个月新高

■本报记者 苏诗钰

近期,国家统计局发布的2017年8月份全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)数据显示,CPI环比上涨0.4%,同比上涨1.8%;PPI环比上涨0.9%,同比上涨6.3%。国家统计局城市司高级统计师绳国庆9月9日表示,8月份CPI、PPI涨幅有所扩大。

从环比看,CPI涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点。食品价格上涨1.2%,影响CPI上涨约0.24个百分点。其中,鸡蛋产量减少,价格上涨16.2%;高温多雨和强对流天气导致鲜菜储运成本增加,价格上涨8.5%;鸡肉和猪肉价格分别上涨3.0%和1.3%,上述四项合计影响CPI上涨约0.32个百分点。非食品价格上涨0.2%,影响CPI上涨约0.18个百分点。其中,汽油和柴油价格分别上涨2.7%和2.9%,医疗服务价格上涨0.9%,居住类价格上涨0.4%,上述四项合计影响CPI上涨约0.18个百分点。

从同比看,CPI涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点。食品价格下降0.2%,降幅收窄0.9个百分点,影响CPI下降约0.04个百分点。其中,猪肉价格下降13.4%,影响CPI下降0.39个百分点。非食品价格上涨2.3%,涨幅扩大0.3个百分点,影响CPI上涨约1.81个百分点。

9月10日,中信证券研究部固收首席分析师明明认为,8月份CPI同比涨幅较上月大幅上升,创近7个月新高。因环保因素导致的鸡蛋价格大涨和受季节性因素导致的鲜菜价格上升是主要原因,同时叠加基期因素,导致CPI增速远超预期。随着食品类价格涨幅收窄和基数效应显现,预计9月份CPI同比增速将有所收窄。

中银国际证券首席宏观分析师朱启兵近期表示,虽然CPI略超预期,但8月份出现价格高点也符合此前的判断。食品价格反弹是8月份CPI略超预期的主要因素之一,但从9月初的高频数据看,目前食品价格并未延续进一步上涨的趋势,农产品价格指数近期已开始回落。猪肉方面虽然8月份环比开始转正,不过由于去年同期猪周期至今年2月份才出现高点,因此暂不会对CPI同比产生太大的正向拉动,预计9月份食品价格维持温和。考虑到基数因素的影响,9月份CPI同比预计小幅回落。

同时,朱启兵表示,8月份非食品涨幅有所扩大,核心通胀也小幅回升至2.2%,与6月份的高点持平,从年初至今基本维持稳步上行。与食品价格的波动相比,非食品价格的涨幅扩大,尤其是服务类价格的持续上涨更值得关注,隐含的通胀压力不容忽视。

PPI方面,从环比看,8月份PPI涨幅比上月扩大0.7个百分点。生产资料价格上涨1.2%,其中,钢材、有色金属等主要生产资料价格涨势明显;生活资料价格上涨0.1%。

明明表示,PPI环比继续上涨,受煤炭钢铁等上游商品价格大涨的影响,相关产业价格涨幅继续扩大,但总体来看8月下旬以来,煤炭钢铁期货价格均出现波动和震荡下行,近期上游商品价格和周期行业股票上涨趋势受到遏制并转为震荡调整,市场对经济基本面强力复苏的预期也开始修正。

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