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郑眼看盘:IPO放缓 利好次新股

2017-09-11 07:07:38   中国经济网

每经记者 郑步春

沪指在上周前三天较为强势,拉出了三连阳,但周四回吐全部涨幅,周五涨跌细微,全周沪综指微跌0.06%至3365.24点。其余股指较强,深综指周涨1.00%至1975.87点,中小板综指涨0.97%,创业板综指涨1.65%。

大盘上周四起的回调可能与以下因素相关,一是市场形成了一致上涨预期,二是技术面超买及背离。

众所周知,下月我国将召开重大会议。由历史经验来看,在此之前股市稳中上涨是大概率事件。市场有这样的预期是非常合理的,但绝大多数人踏准市场节奏并挣钱是不太可能的。基于此,我上周便怀疑大盘走势会出现某种波折,并多次建议投资者谨慎一些。投资股市可以往大概率方向预期,但在任何时候都不能认死理。

在技术指标方面,大盘这波行情一直不温不火地沿上升通道走,但最近两周却高位滞涨,且成交额渐次回落,这样的情形通常也容易诱发回调。正巧央行行为及部分经济指标暗示短期内降准概率下降,所以股指顺势回落。

对于这波回调,投资者暂时不必太担心,因这很可能不是趋势性下跌。由国债期货上周后几天的强劲走势看,资金面其实并不差。一旦技术面修复得差不多了,股指往往又会拉起。

上周末证监会核发了7家IPO,环比少了一家,融资总量也较温和,这相当于为次新股炒家发了颗定心丸。次新股是近期的人气明星,如果这个板块人气不减,市场整体热情应不至于下降太多。不过,管理层顶多只是担心市场热情下降,却不愿见到涨速过快。上周五下午,华大基因特停,这多少反映了管理层的这种心态。

近期人民币升势凌厉,该因素可能对股市投资者心态产生积极影响,但我觉得投资者不必对此过度解读。“飘风不终朝,骤雨不终日”,个人认为,人民币本轮升值,应该很难长久持续。

首先,由受益标的来看,中国国航、南方航空等股年内走势显得不太连贯,这暗示市场主力并无明确预期。其次,外汇储备虽连续增长,但增速始终不温不火,显示外资还未趋势性大规模流入。

对于A股来说,后市若能维持进二退一最好,这样政策面的反馈多半就会比较正面。操作方面,投资者可依通道高抛低吸,同时注意板块切换,若持股不在热点,那就很可能在一小波升浪中颗粒无收。

笔者已在微信平台开辟专栏,读者可以在每周日至周四晚间通过微信直接查看笔者的最新观点,详情请关注“每经投资宝”微信公众号。

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