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中小创可谨慎看多

2017-09-11 09:02:40   中国经济网

上周市场蓝筹股集体歇菜,题材概念股、次新股以及中小创股票中的成长白马起飞。创业板明显带量上涨,市场人气和赚钱效应增加。

实际上,自7月底部分创业板公司十大股东出现证金等机构后,市场对中小创的担忧开始淡化,投资者开始逐渐跟随“国家队”资金掘金,中小创指数也因此一路上扬。创业板指数7月中下旬至今累计涨幅近17%,中小板指数最高涨幅14%。上周五,创业板指数突破了1850点这一关键位置,最高涨到了1914点。人工智能、互联网金融、网络安全等题材股大涨。

与中小创不同,主板近期高位盘整量能下降,调整风险增大,之前活跃的家电、白酒等白马股已明显走弱。在此背景下,具有业绩成长性和估值水平的中小创显然更有吸引力,可以谨慎看多。

为什么这样讲?因为中小创目前来看有业绩和估值优势。尽管今年中小板和创业板半年报整体业绩增速较一季度有所下滑,但如果剔除个别变化较大的龙头公司如温氏股份、乐视网等,再剔除外延并购的影响,创业板业绩是呈持续增长态势的。而从估值水平看,目前中小板指37倍左右的估值低于39倍的历史均值,创业板指40倍左右的估值低于60倍的历史均值。虽然还未到绝对低位,部分股票估值也还远高于主板和国际创业板,但已回归到相对合理的位置。

另外,从市场情绪和心理看,创业板已经调整了两年多,从高点跌去七成的PE对资金也产生吸引力,人心思涨。而证金、汇金已经提前布局中小创,特别是养老金、社保基金二季度纷纷增持中小创股票,机构8月以来的调研方向几乎全面转向中小创个股,这些消息都对人气恢复产生正面刺激作用。

但是,从目前的市场情况看,说中小创反转还为时过早,只能说是反弹,是超跌后的补涨,后期不可避免还要出现盘整。尤其是上周四,创业板出现了13个月以来的天量阴线,在当前增量资金相对有限的背景下,一旦在高位成交量不能持续放大,行情进入调整的可能性很大。现在只能说在目前主板相对风险更大的情况下,市场资金转向中小盘股票炒作的可能性较大。只有资金面支持再加上市场情绪持续升温,中小创才能持续走强。

虽然对中小创相对看多,但预计难以出现趋势性行情,仍以结构性行情为主。因此要参与中小创行情,一是要择时,逢低入场不要追高,二是择股,必须精选一些业绩向好、现金流充足、估值合理的行业和个股。当然,如果认为把握难度大,不如退而求其次,固定伏击一个热点,把利润赚到手。

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