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我国外汇储备规模连续七个月回升
2017-09-08 07:21:55 中国经济网
根据7日央行公布的数据,截至2017年8月末,外汇储备规模为30915亿美元,较7月末上升108亿美元,升幅为0.4%,为连续第七个月出现回升。
国家外汇管理局有关负责人表示,8月,我国跨境资金流动和外汇市场供求延续基本平衡格局;国际金融市场上,资产价格有所上升,推动外汇储备规模出现上升。
交通银行金融研究中心分析师刘健表示,8月外储增加108亿美元,连续7个月回升,但此前几个月回升主要得益于汇率估值效应,8月资本流入对外储的贡献可能首次为正。8月美元指数小幅下跌0.3%,汇率估值因素对外储的贡献较小。8月人民币汇率突破6.7关口后,可能带来部分止损盘的平盘及企业结汇意愿上升,部分人民币空头可能转为多头,带来资本净流入,预计由于资本流入带来的外储增加30至50亿美元。
中国民生银行首席研究员温彬表示,预计8月份银行结售汇逆差将进一步收窄、外汇占款余额或由降转升,基础货币投放改善有助于金融体系流动性保持稳定。
外汇局有关负责人表示,今年以来,我国经济稳中向好,结构调整深化,主要指标好于预期,宏观经济稳定性增强。国际金融市场相对稳定,跨境资金流动形势回稳向好,外汇市场供求趋向基本平衡,人民币汇率保持基本稳定。往前看,在供给侧结构性改革持续推进、转型升级和动能转换步伐进一步加快的背景下,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的积极因素将不断增强,我国经济稳中向好的态势将继续向纵深发展。随着进一步深化金融体制改革,扩大金融对外开放,未来我国跨境资金流动总体企稳的基础更加坚实,将进一步推动外汇储备规模保持合理适度。
刘健表示,短期来看,人民币汇率突破关键点位后,升值态势可能持续甚至强化,加之美元指数持续震荡下跌,人民币有望保持稳中有升走势,企业结汇意愿可能继续较强,从而有助于推动资本流入,并可能成为外储回升的主导因素。但汇率因素和利率因素或将减弱。预计9月外储可能继续稳步增加。
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