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我国外汇储备实现七连增 跨境资金流动企稳基础更加坚实

2017-09-08 06:47:05   中国经济网

9月7日,中国人民银行公布的数据显示,截至2017年8月末,外汇储备规模为30915亿美元,较7月末上升108亿美元,升幅为0.4%,为连续第7个月出现回升。近期,人民币汇率连续上涨,9月7日,在岸人民币兑美元升破6.50关口,创下2016年5月3日以来官方在岸收盘价新高。

8月,我国跨境资金流动和外汇市场供求延续基本平衡格局;国际金融市场上,资产价格有所上升,推动外汇储备规模出现上升。

国家外汇管理局有关负责人表示,今年以来,我国经济稳中向好,结构调整深化,主要指标好于预期,宏观经济稳定性增强。国际金融市场相对稳定,跨境资金流动形势回稳向好,外汇市场供求趋向基本平衡,人民币汇率保持基本稳定。

8月份,人民币对美元升值2%左右,这被认为是推升外汇储备的主要原因。“汇率只是其中一个因素。”中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员管涛认为,外汇储备之所以连续增加,有国内经济趋稳、外部美元持续回调等基本面因素,也受到我国货币政策转向稳健中性、中美货币政策差异收敛等政策影响,此外,我国加强和改进跨境资本流动管理,鼓励流入,并对流出进行了调控;对外投资恢复理性,也使得资本流出得到缓解,国际收支状况进一步好转。

随着市场对于人民币汇率的预期趋稳,今年以来,个人用汇更加合理有序,7月个人购汇环比和同比分别下降35%和27%,担心人民币汇率继续大幅下跌的恐慌性心态得到扭转。

在连增7个月之后,接下来,外汇储备增加是否具有可持续性?管涛认为,这主要观察内外部基本面的变化。如果基本面出现震荡,可能使得外汇储备走势发生变化。

“往前看,在供给侧结构性改革持续推进、转型升级和动能转换步伐进一步加快的背景下,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的积极因素将不断增强,我国经济稳中向好的态势将继续向纵深发展。”外汇局有关负责人表示,随着进一步深化金融体制改革,扩大金融对外开放,未来我国跨境资金流动总体企稳的基础更加坚实,将进一步推动外汇储备规模保持合理适度。

“单就人民币汇率而言,一波快涨之后,调整是迟早的事儿。”管涛表示。近期有人提出,人民币汇率重新回到了趋势性升值的轨道,对此,他认为,即便是趋势性的,也是震荡走高,而非单边升值。

但交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘健看来,短期来看,人民币汇率突破关键点位后,升值态势可能持续甚至强化,加之美元指数持续震荡下跌,人民币有望保持稳中有升走势,企业结汇意愿可能继续较强,从而有助于推动资本流入,并可能成为外储回升的主导因素。预计9月外汇储备可能继续稳步增加。(经济日报记者 陈果静)

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