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啤酒产量连降3年后重回增长 行业复苏还是触底反弹?

2017-09-07 07:27:16   中国经济网

每经记者 陈星 每经编辑 赵桥

经历了产销量连滑三年后,国内啤酒业今年以来重回增长。

2014年至2016年,我国啤酒产业面临产能过剩、市场需求减少等问题,国内巨头也出现产量下滑“喝不动”的现象。但2017年上半年,我国啤酒行业总产量终于迎来小幅回升。国家统计局近日公布的数据显示,今年1~7月,国内啤酒累计产量2781.7万千升,同比增长0.8%。

一时间,业内称“啤酒行业重回正向发展轨道”者有之,称“行业触底反弹,乃预料之中”者亦有之。就此,多位行业人士向《每日经济新闻》记者表示,目前行业回升时间过短,增长态势是否可持续仍有待观察。

●前7月啤酒产量增长0.8%

相对无论是市场一线还是资本市场都十分火热的白酒板块,啤酒业稍显沉寂。不过,从行业内部来看,国内啤酒今年已挥别过去三年的连续下滑。

2014年,国内啤酒行业产量为4921万千升,同比下降0.96%。这系十多年来,啤酒行业产量首次出现负增长。但当年仅是开端,自2014年至2016年,啤酒整体产量连续下滑长达25个月。转折出现在去年下半年,2016年,国内的啤酒产量达到4506.4万千升,同比小幅下滑0.10%。

与行业数据对应的是,我国啤酒上市公司业绩整体下滑。其中,华润啤酒(00291,HK)2016年营收虽然略有增长,但净利润仅6.26亿元,同比下降6.04%。燕京啤酒(000729,SZ)自2014年以来连续三年营收下滑,去年营收下降7.70%,净利润接近腰斩。青岛啤酒(600600,SH)、惠泉啤酒(600573,SH)、西藏发展(000752,SZ)业绩均大幅下滑。

到今年啤酒业整体产量重回增长。国家统计局数据显示,2017年7月,国内啤酒总产量达515.5万千升,同比增长1.6%。今年1~7月,啤酒累计产量2781.7万千升,同比增长0.8%。

截至8月30日,华润啤酒、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒(600132,SH)及珠江啤酒(002461,SZ)这五家上市公司已发布半年报。其中除重庆啤酒营收缓降2.82%,其余四家均实现营收与净利双双增长。其中,营收涨幅度最大的是珠江啤酒,其于报告期内录得营收18.31亿元,同比增长11.59%。

有行业声音认为,如今行业数据及企业业绩均出现拐点,但啤酒行业到底是“触底反弹”还是迎来“复苏曙光”,各方看法不一。

9月6日,国内某知名啤酒企业内部人士向《每日经济新闻》记者表示,行业一些酒企将今年春节所在的1月产能任务调整到了2016年12月,如果将当时的产能数据调整到今年一季度,今年全年的啤酒总产能提升将更为明显。

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