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风险偏好持续提升 两融余额站上9500亿元

2017-09-06 07:41:43   中国经济网

近期,A股重心继续上移,两融余额也是节节攀高。截至9月4日,沪深两融余额已攀升至9534.84亿元,是今年以来首次攀上9500亿元,刷新阶段新高;有色金属、计算机、公用事业、电子和采掘这五大板块的融资净买入金额居前。分析人士指出,在当前的行情下,A股的赚钱效应已越来越明朗。在两融余额持续攀升以及投资者的风险偏好已有较大好转的情况下,细分行业的绝对龙头以及细分领域的绝对龙头仍然值得买入并持有。

两融余额续创新高

上周两市整体延续强势,沪市也已牢牢站稳3300点上方,并进一步向3400点大关挺进。两融余额继续呈现出连升态势。

周一,沪深两融余额报9534.84亿元,今年首度回升至9500亿元大关的上方,表明被激发的做多热情仍在市场中延续。其中,沪市融资余额自上周五的5640.39亿元,升至5672.51亿元,较前增加32.12亿元,增幅约0.57%;深市两融余额也自3837.27亿元,上升至4日的3862.33亿元,较前增25.06亿元,增幅约0.65%。

而就在两市融资余额逐日攀高之际,近期两市的融券余额却呈现出连连回落的态势。上周末时,两市融券余额报37.82亿元,至本周一时两市融券余额则报36.55亿元,下降了1.27亿元,降幅为3.3%。分析人士表示,一方面,市场突破在3300点后,融券余额总体上呈现出连降的格局,表明了市场在突破后,多空力量的天平已开始逐渐倾向多方一侧。当前融资和融券余额“一升一降”的情况,再度从侧面印证了短期市场维持强势的概率依然偏大。而另一方面,从上周融券余额变动有所反复的情况来看,空方力量也随时准备伺机反扑,A股的反弹之路注定也将不会平坦。

国信证券表示,市场整体上涨,但运行出现了一丝变化。虽然上证50指数为主的大盘权重股及相关板块依然是两市维持强势的主导力量,但创业板在上涨幅度方面大有后来居上的趋势。由于增量资金的增加,成交量较前也有所放大,存量资金在热点间也出现了不断切换。此外,市场资金净流出增加与指数上涨之间出现的背离也显示出逢高减仓迹象。因此,上证指数在连续三个月收阳之后,9月份将可能在3300-3400点间出现震荡。

龙头标的仍受“青睐”

根据数据,本周一,28个申万一级行业中,共有25个行业板块获得融资净买入。其中,有色金属、计算机、公用事业、电子和采掘五个行业板块的融资净买入金额居前,分别获得净买入10.49亿元、6.78亿元、6.59亿元、5.58亿元和5.54亿元。

后续,周期板块和金融板块在市场中的“双轮驱动”作用仍不可忽视。申万宏源表示,虽然当前市场欲罢不能,但却扩散无望。因此,其判断市场最终仍将回归主线、回归龙头。一方面,本钢火灾事故使得相关期货和股票价格出现了明显上涨,这样的市场实验告诉我们,在供给侧改革造成的供需紧平衡之下,大宗商品价格易涨难跌的格局依然存在。另一方面,传统金融对互联网金融的系统性反扑已经确立,大银行的基本面趋势犹在。在此背景下,申万宏源认为后市仍可继续对周期和金融板块看好。

而从周一融资净买入额前五位的标的来看,分别为中国神华、国电电力、北方稀土、平安银行和洛阳钼业,净买入额分别为3.47亿元、2.38亿元、2.27亿元、1.48亿元和1.35亿元。从上述标的均属于周期和金融板块的情况来看,也反映出虽然资金在上述板块方面的流出有所加剧,但这些板块的龙头标的对资金依然具有较强吸引力。

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